Related papers: Editorial: EVA 2019 data competition on spatio-tem…

Recent extreme value theory literature has seen significant emphasis on the modelling of spatial extremes, with comparatively little consideration of spatio-temporal extensions. This neglects an important feature of extreme events: their…

In environmental science applications, extreme events frequently exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure, which is difficult to describe flexibly and estimate in a computationally efficient way using state-of-art parametric…

We present the methods employed by team `Uniofbathtopia' as part of the Data Challenge organised for the 13th International Conference on Extreme Value Analysis (EVA2023), including our winning entry for the third sub-challenge. Our…

The spatio-temporal relations of impacts of extreme events and their drivers in climate data are not fully understood and there is a need of machine learning approaches to identify such spatio-temporal relations from data. The task,…

Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…

This overview paper details the findings from the Diving Deep: Forecasting Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies Challenge at the European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases (ECML…

The modeling of spatio-temporal trends in temperature extremes can help better understand the structure and frequency of heatwaves in a changing climate. Here, we study annual temperature maxima over Southern Europe using a century-spanning…

We describe our submission to the Extreme Value Analysis 2019 Data Challenge in which teams were asked to predict extremes of sea surface temperature anomaly within spatio-temporal regions of missing data. We present a computational…

This paper describes the methodology used by the team RedSea in the data competition organized for EVA 2021 conference. We develop a novel two-part model to jointly describe the wildfire count data and burnt area data provided by the…

Then detection and identification of extreme weather events in large-scale climate simulations is an important problem for risk management, informing governmental policy decisions and advancing our basic understanding of the climate system.…

We develop a method for probabilistic prediction of extreme value hot-spots in a spatio-temporal framework, tailored to big datasets containing important gaps. In this setting, direct calculation of summaries from data, such as the minimum…

Capturing the extremal behaviour of data often requires bespoke marginal and dependence models which are grounded in rigorous asymptotic theory, and hence provide reliable extrapolation into the upper tails of the data-generating…

Extreme event attribution (EEA), an approach for assessing the extent to which disasters are caused by climate change, is crucial for informing climate policy and legal proceedings. Machine learning is increasingly used for EEA by modeling…

One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…

Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…

There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this…

Extreme value analysis (EVA) uses data to estimate long-term extreme environmental conditions for variables such as significant wave height and period, for the design of marine structures. Together with models for the short-term evolution…

Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…

We present the winning strategy of an electricity demand forecasting competition. This competition was organized to design new forecasting methods for unstable periods such as the one starting in Spring 2020. We rely on state-space models…

Although the fundamental probabilistic theory of extremes has been well developed, there are many practical considerations that must be addressed in application. The contribution of this thesis is four-fold. The first concerns the choice of…