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Probabilistic models are often used to make predictions in regions of the data space where no observations are available, but it is not always clear whether such predictions are well-informed by previously seen data. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Kurt Butler , Guanchao Feng , Tong Chen , Petar Djuric

In head-to-head racing, an accurate model of interactive behavior of the opposing target vehicle (TV) is required to perform tightly constrained, but highly rewarding maneuvers such as overtaking. However, such information is not typically…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-03-02 Edward L. Zhu , Finn Lukas Busch , Jake Johnson , Francesco Borrelli

Robotic tasks which involve uncertainty--due to variation in goal, environment configuration, or confidence in task model--may require human input to instruct or adapt the robot. In tasks with physical contact, several existing methods for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Kevin Haninger , Christian Hegeler , Luka Peternel

Examples with bound information on the regression function and density abound in many real applications. We propose a novel approach for estimating such functions by incorporating the prior knowledge on the bounds. Specially, a Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-30 Jize Zhang , Lizhen Lin

We analyze the Bayesian regret of the Gaussian process posterior sampling reinforcement learning (GP-PSRL) algorithm. Posterior sampling is an effective heuristic for decision-making under uncertainty that has been used to develop…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Hamish Flynn , Joe Watson , Ingmar Posner , Jan Peters

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a Bayesian machine learning approach widely used to construct surrogate models for the uncertainty quantification of computer simulation codes in industrial applications. It provides both a mean predictor and an…

This tutorial provides a systematic introduction to Gaussian process learning-based model predictive control (GP-MPC), an advanced approach integrating Gaussian process (GP) with model predictive control (MPC) for enhanced control in…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-04-08 Jie Wang , Youmin Zhang

Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used to emulate propagation uncertainty in computer experiments. GP emulation sits comfortably within an analytically tractable Bayesian framework. Apart from propagating uncertainty of the input…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-30 Silvia Montagna , Surya T. Tokdar

Trial-and-error based reinforcement learning (RL) has seen rapid advancements in recent times, especially with the advent of deep neural networks. However, the majority of autonomous RL algorithms require a large number of interactions with…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-02-23 Sanket Kamthe , Marc Peter Deisenroth

Model Predictive Control (MPC) of an unknown system that is modelled by Gaussian Process (GP) techniques is studied in this paper. Using GP, the variances computed during the modelling and inference processes allow us to take model…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-12-06 Gang Cao , Edmund M-K Lai , Fakhrul Alam

The combination of inducing point methods with stochastic variational inference has enabled approximate Gaussian Process (GP) inference on large datasets. Unfortunately, the resulting predictive distributions often exhibit substantially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Martin Jankowiak , Geoff Pleiss , Jacob R. Gardner

A popular strategy for active learning is to specifically target a reduction in epistemic uncertainty, since aleatoric uncertainty is often considered as being intrinsic to the system of interest and therefore not reducible. Yet,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-12 Jake Thomas , Jeremie Houssineau

We address the problem of continual learning in multi-task Gaussian process (GP) models for handling sequential input-output observations. Our approach extends the existing prior-posterior recursion of online Bayesian inference, i.e.\ past…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-04 Pablo Moreno-Muñoz , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez , Mauricio A. Álvarez

We address uncertainty quantification for Gaussian processes (GPs) under misspecified priors, with an eye towards Bayesian Optimization (BO). GPs are widely used in BO because they easily enable exploration based on posterior uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-03 Willie Neiswanger , Aaditya Ramdas

Safety-critical applications require controllers/policies that can guarantee safety with high confidence. The control barrier function is a useful tool to guarantee safety if we have access to the ground-truth system dynamics. In practice,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-30 Athindran Ramesh Kumar , Sulin Liu , Jaime F. Fisac , Ryan P. Adams , Peter J. Ramadge

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful probabilistic modeling technique with built-in uncertainty quantification. When one has access to multiple correlated simulations (tasks), it is common to fit a multitask GP (MTGP) surrogate…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-18 Aleksei G. Sorokin , Pieterjan Robbe , Fred J. Hickernell

Some scenarios require the computation of a predictive distribution of a new value evaluated on an objective function conditioned on previous observations. We are interested on using a model that makes valid assumptions on the objective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-21 Lucia Asencio-Martín , Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán

This paper proposes a statistical verification framework using Gaussian processes (GPs) for simulation-based verification of stochastic nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties. Given a small number of stochastic simulations, the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-10-03 John F. Quindlen , Ufuk Topcu , Girish Chowdhary , Jonathan P. How

With the increasing complexity of real-world systems and varying environmental uncertainties, it is difficult to build an accurate dynamic model, which poses challenges especially for safety-critical control. In this paper, a learning-based…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-13 Sihua Zhang , Di-Hua Zhai , Xiaobing Dai , Tzu-yuan Huang , Yuanqing Xia , Sandra Hirche

We propose a control design method for linear time-invariant systems that iteratively learns to satisfy unknown polyhedral state constraints. At each iteration of a repetitive task, the method constructs an estimate of the unknown…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-13 Monimoy Bujarbaruah , Charlott Vallon , Francesco Borrelli
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