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A differential algebra based importance sampling method for uncertainty propagation and impact probability computation on the first resonant returns of Near Earth Objects is presented in this paper. Starting from the results of an orbit…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2018-08-16 Matteo Losacco , Pierluigi Di Lizia , Roberto Armellin , Alexander Wittig

We present a novel empirical method for correcting asteroid phase curves for rotational and geometrical effects using precomputed spin-and-shape models. Our approach normalizes sparse photometric data to a pole-on geometry, enabling…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-21 Dagmara Oszkiewicz. Przemysław Bartczak , Milagros Colazo , Antti Penttilä

We present a method for calculating precise distances to asteroids using only two nights of data from a single location --- far too little for an orbit --- by exploiting the angular reflex motion of the asteroids due to Earth's axial…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2015-10-07 Aren N. Heinze , Stanimir Metchev

The goal of the present paper is to develop a simplified model to describe the gravitational fields of elongated asteroids. The proposed model consists of representing an elongated asteroid using a triple-particle-linkage system distributed…

We present an automated system called NEORANGER that regularly computes asteroid-Earth impact probabilities for objects on the Minor Planet Center's (MPC) Near-Earth-Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) and sends out alerts of imminent…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2018-09-12 Otto Solin , Mikael Granvik

The Yarkovsky effect on real asteroids is complicated to calculate either by analytical or numerical methods, since they are generally irregular in shape. We propose an index to properly characterise the shape of any asteroid, through which…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-02 Yining Zhang , Yang-Bo Xu , Zehua Qi , Li-Yong Zhou , Jian-Yang Li

Computing collision-free trajectories is of prime importance for safe navigation. We present an approach for computing the collision probability under Gaussian distributed motion and sensing uncertainty with the robot and static obstacle…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-11-05 Antony Thomas , Fulvio Mastrogiovanni , Marco Baglietto

Attitude estimation is often a prerequisite for control of the attitude or orientation of mechanical systems. Current attitude estimation algorithms use coordinate representations for the group of rigid body orientations. All coordinate…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Taeyoung Lee , Amit K. Sanyal , Melvin Leok , N. Harris McClamroch

Standard chance constrained control algorithms typically rely on the assumption that uncertainties in vehicle states obey Gaussian statistics. Highly nonlinear systems tend to disrupt Gaussianity, challenging standard chance-constrained…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Ethan Burnett , Spencer Boone

Rare event simulation and rare event probability estimation are important tasks within the analysis of systems subject to uncertainty and randomness. Simultaneously, accurately estimating rare event probabilities is an inherently difficult…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-18 Max Ehre , Iason Papaioannou , Daniel Straub

Simulations of asteroid binaries commonly use mutual gravitational potentials approximated by series expansions, leading to truncation errors, and also preventing correct computations of the forces and torques when the bodies are close. We…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2023-03-08 Alex Ho , Margrethe Wold , Mohammad Poursina , John T. Conway

Satellite conjunctions involving "near misses" of space objects are becoming increasingly likely. One approach to risk analysis for them involves the computation of the collision probability, but this has been regarded as having some…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-11 Soumaya Elkantassi , Anthony Davison

We introduce NEOviz, an interactive visualization system designed to assist planetary defense experts in the visual analysis of the movements of near-Earth objects in the Solar System that might prove hazardous to Earth. Asteroids are often…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2024-11-06 Fangfei Lan , Malin Ejdbo , Joachim Moeyens , Bei Wang , Anders Ynnerman , Alexander Bock

In asteroid rendezvous missions, the dynamical environment near the asteroid's surface should be made clear prior to the mission launch. However, most of the asteroids have irregular shapes, which lower the efficiency of calculating their…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2017-12-20 Shoucun Hu , Jianghui Ji

This paper describes continuous-space methodologies to estimate the collision probability, Euclidean distance and gradient between an ellipsoidal robot model and an environment surface modeled as a set of Gaussian distributions.…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Kshitij Goel , Wennie Tabib

Satellite conjunctions involving near misses of space objects are increasingly common, especially with the growth of satellite constellations and space debris. Accurate risk analysis for these events is essential to prevent collisions and…

Probabilistic collision detection (PCD) is essential in motion planning for robots operating in unstructured environments, where considering sensing uncertainty helps prevent damage. Existing PCD methods mainly used simplified geometric…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Xiaoli Wang , Sipu Ruan , Xin Meng , Gregory Chirikjian

This paper presents an algorithm for the preprocessing of observation data aimed at improving the robustness of orbit determination tools. Two objectives are fulfilled: obtain a refined solution to the initial orbit determination problem…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Alberto Fossà , Roberto Armellin , Emmanuel Delande , Matteo Losacco , Francesco Sanfedino

This Engineering Note addresses the challenge of estimating the probability of collision for tethered spacecraft during close encounters with other space objects. Standard probability of collision methods, based on spherical hard-body…

This paper explores the problem of analytically approximating the orbital state for a subset of orbits in a rotating potential with oblateness and ellipticity perturbations. This is done by isolating approximate differential equations for…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2022-02-02 Ethan Burnett , Hanspeter Schaub