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Claims reserving, also known as Incurred But Not Reported (IBNR) claims prediction, is an important issue in general insurance. State space modeling is widely recognized as a statistically robust method for addressing this problem. In state…

Optimization problems with an auxiliary latent variable structure in addition to the main model parameters occur frequently in computer vision and machine learning. The additional latent variables make the underlying optimization task…

We present a tractable non-independent increment process which provides a high modeling flexibility. The process lies on an extension of the so-called Harris chains to continuous time being stationary and Feller. We exhibit constructions,…

We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…

The capability to widely sample the state and action spaces is a key ingredient toward building effective reinforcement learning algorithms. The variational optimization principles exposed in this paper emphasize the importance of an…

Joint modeling of spatially-oriented dependent variables is commonplace in the environmental sciences, where scientists seek to estimate the relationships among a set of environmental outcomes accounting for dependence among these outcomes…

Critical, or scale independent, systems are so ubiquitous, that gaining theoretical insights on their nature and properties has many direct repercussions in social and natural sciences. In this report, we start from the simplest possible…

We consider amortized Bayesian inference for nonlinear inverse problems in settings where only samples from the joint distribution of parameters and observations are available. Classical methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo require…

We present a new transport-based approach to efficiently perform sequential Bayesian inference of static model parameters. The strategy is based on the extraction of conditional distribution from the joint distribution of parameters and…

Estimating time-varying correlation matrices is challenging because existing methods may adapt slowly to structural changes, impose insufficient regularization, or produce diffuse posterior uncertainty. In moderate dimensions, an additional…

Bayesian hierarchical models are frequently used in practical data analysis contexts. One interpretation of these models is that they provide an indirect way of assigning a prior for unknown parameters, through the introduction of…

We present an integrated approach for structure and parameter estimation in latent tree graphical models. Our overall approach follows a "divide-and-conquer" strategy that learns models over small groups of variables and iteratively merges…

We address the problem of Bayesian structure learning for domains with hundreds of variables by employing non-parametric bootstrap, recursively. We propose a method that covers both model averaging and model selection in the same framework.…

In (exploratory) factor analysis, the loading matrix is identified only up to orthogonal rotation. For identifiability, one thus often takes the loading matrix to be lower triangular with positive diagonal entries. In Bayesian inference, a…

We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order hidden Markov models when the number of latent states and the nature of the serial dependence, including the true order, are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric methodology…

We revisit a model for time-varying linear regression that assumes the unknown parameters evolve according to a linear dynamical system. Counterintuitively, we show that when the underlying dynamics are stable the parameters of this model…

Stochastic processes generated by non-stationary distributions are difficult to represent with conventional models such as Gaussian processes. This work presents Recurrent Autoregressive Flows as a method toward general stochastic process…

One of the challenges in model-based control of stochastic dynamical systems is that the state transition dynamics are involved, and it is not easy or efficient to make good-quality predictions of the states. Moreover, there are not many…

Motivated by the application to German interest rates, we propose a timevarying autoregressive model for short and long term prediction of time series that exhibit a temporary non-stationary behavior but are assumed to mean revert in the…

A statistical, path-dependent framework to describe time-dependent macroscopic theories using the Principle of Maximum Caliber is presented. By means of this procedure, it is possible to infer predictive non-equilibrium statistical…