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Quantifying uncertainty associated with the microstructure variation of a material can be a computationally daunting task, especially when dealing with advanced constitutive models and fine mesh resolutions in the crystal plasticity finite…

Materials Science · Physics 2023-02-10 Anh Tran , Pieterjan Robbe , Hojun Lim

We present a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the uncertainty quantification of variably saturated porous media flow that are modeled using the Richards' equation. We propose a stochastic extension for the empirical models that are…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-03-22 Prashant Kumar , Carmen Rodrigo , Francisco J. Gaspar , Cornelis W. Oosterlee

The Multilevel Monte Carlo method is an efficient variance reduction technique. It uses a sequence of coarse approximations to reduce the computational cost in uncertainty quantification applications. The method is nowadays often considered…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-15 Pieterjan Robbe , Dirk Nuyens , Stefan Vandewalle

As the size of engineered systems grows, problems in reliability theory can become computationally challenging, often due to the combinatorial growth in the cut sets. In this paper we demonstrate how Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) - a…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-14 Louis J. M. Aslett , Tigran Nagapetyan , Sebastian J. Vollmer

Probabilistic prediction of sequences from images and other high-dimensional data is a key challenge, particularly in risk-sensitive applications. In these settings, it is often desirable to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Qidong Yang , Weicheng Zhu , Joseph Keslin , Laure Zanna , Tim G. J. Rudner , Carlos Fernandez-Granda

In this paper, we present a generalisation of the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method to a setting where the level parameter is a continuous variable. This Continuous Level Monte Carlo (CLMC) estimator provides a natural framework in PDE…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-22 Gianluca Detommaso , Tim Dodwell , Rob Scheichl

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-03 Jiaxin Zhang

This article reviews the application of advanced Monte Carlo techniques in the context of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). MLMC is a strategy employed to compute expectations which can be biased in some sense, for instance, by using the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-04-25 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Carina Suciu

This position paper summarizes a recently developed research program focused on inference in the context of data centric science and engineering applications, and forecasts its trajectory forward over the next decade. Often one endeavours…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-06 Ajay Jasra , Kody J. H. Law , Alexander Tarakanov , Fangyuan Yu

Stochastic PDE eigenvalue problems often arise in the field of uncertainty quantification, whereby one seeks to quantify the uncertainty in an eigenvalue, or its eigenfunction. In this paper we present an efficient multilevel quasi-Monte…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-07 Alexander D. Gilbert , Robert Scheichl

A common way to simulate the transport and spread of pollutants in the atmosphere is via stochastic Lagrangian dispersion models. Mathematically, these models describe turbulent transport processes with stochastic differential equations…

Computational tools for characterizing electromagnetic scattering from objects with uncertain shapes are needed in various applications ranging from remote sensing at microwave frequencies to Raman spectroscopy at optical frequencies.…

In this paper, we investigate the use of multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for estimating the expectation of discretized random fields. Specifically, we consider a setting in which the input and output vectors of numerical simulators…

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) reduces the total computational cost of financial option pricing by combining SDE approximations with multiple resolutions. This paper explores a further avenue for reducing cost and improving power efficiency…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-12 Irina-Beatrice Haas , Michael B. Giles

We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-06-27 Sadegh Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani , Rupak Majumdar , Tigran Nagapetyan

In the framework of uncertainty quantification, we consider a quantity of interest which depends non-smoothly on the high-dimensional parameter representing the uncertainty. We show that, in this situation, the multilevel Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-06-27 Laura Scarabosio

We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Søren Taverniers , Daniel M. Tartakovsky

In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-26 Kei Ishikawa , Takashi Goda

This paper addresses optimization problems constrained by partial differential equations with uncertain coefficients. In particular, the robust control problem and the average control problem are considered for a tracking type cost…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-11-08 Andreas Van Barel , Stefan Vandewalle

Two of the most significant challenges in uncertainty quantification pertain to the high computational cost for simulating complex physical models and the high dimension of the random inputs. In applications of practical interest, both of…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-09-02 Jonas Nitzler , Jonas Biehler , Niklas Fehn , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis , Wolfgang A. Wall