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The challenge in predicting sub-regional climate within the Indian monsoon region is exacerbated by its increasing variability in a warming world. While exploring the seasonal predictability of rainfall over the state of Tamil Nadu in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-05 Harini S , Devabrat Sharma , Yogenraj Patil , Gaurav Chopra , Shruti Tandon , B. N. Goswami , R. I. Sujith

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has a decisive influence on India's agricultural output and economy. Extreme deviations from the normal seasonal amount of rainfall can cause severe droughts or floods, affecting Indian food…

A monsoon is a wind system that seasonally reverses its direction, accompanied by corresponding changes in precipitation. The Indian monsoon is the most prominent monsoon system, primarily affecting India's rainy season and its surrounding…

This chapter introduces flood and drought through the understanding of the water cycle. In addition to the water cycle, we consider the energy cycle. The floods and droughts have strong regional and seasonal characteristics. The causes of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-13 Hiroshi G. Takahashi , Masashi Kiguchi , Shiori Sugimoto

Extreme rainfall in the Indian summer monsoon can be destructive and deadly. Although El Ni\~no/ events in the equatorial Pacific make dry days and whole summers more likely throughout India, their influence on daily extremes is not well…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-22 Spencer A Hill , Destiny Zamir Meyers , Adam H Sobel , Michela Biasutti , Mark A Cane , Michael K Tippett , Fiaz Ahmed

In contrast to the wet gets wetter and dry gets drier paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10 to 50…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-29 P. V. Rajesh , B. N. Goswami

The mean North American and world climates have warmed significantly since the beginning of climatologically significant anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases in the 19th Century. It has been suggested that warming may increase the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-06-03 T. Muschinski , J. I. Katz

The initiation of the Indian summer monsoon circulation during late May / early June arises through large-scale land-sea thermal contrast and setting up of negative pressure gradient between the Monsoon Trough over the Indo-Gangetic plains…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-12-03 R. Krishnan , Bhupendra Singh , R. Vellore , M. Mujumdar , P. Swapna , Ayantika Choudhury , Manmeet Singh , B. Preethi , M. Rajeevan

Continental heatwaves can dramatically impact ecosystems and societies, e.g., by leading to excess mortality, wildfires, and harvest failures. With a warming climate, their impacts potentially intensify globally, but the Indian subcontinent…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-23 Abhirup Banerjee , Armin Koehl , Frank Lunkeit , Detlef Stammer

Summer monsoon rainfall over India depends on synoptic-scale phenomena like lows and depressions. India's summer monsoon season 2020 saw above-average rainfall. North Indian Ocean had 12 LPAs in summer 2020 in JJAS season. This monsoon…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-10-31 Nimmakanti Mahendra , Nagaraju Chilukoti , Jasti S Chowdary , Ashok Karumuri , Manmeet Singh

Traditionally, during the monsoon season, more rainfall is received along the Western Ghats, the Northern Gangetic plains, the central belt, and northeast India. However, recently, there has been a shift in this canonical monsoon rainfall…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-30 Akshara Satheesh , Rajib Chattopadhyay

Drought is a costly natural hazard, many aspects of which remain poorly understood. It has many contributory factors, driving its outset, duration, and severity, including land surface, anthropogenic activities, and, most importantly,…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-18 Mohammad Noorbakhsh , Colm Connaughton , Francisco A. Rodrigues

A region under rainfall is a contiguous spatial area receiving positive precipitation at a particular time. The probabilistic behavior of such a region is an issue of interest in meteorological studies. A region under rainfall can be viewed…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-05 Kaushik Jana , Debasis Sengupta , Subrata Kundu , Arindam Chakraborty , Purnima Shaw

The livelihood and food security of more than a billion people depend on the Indian monsoon (IM). Yet, a universal definition of the large-scale season and progress of IM is missing. Even though IM is a planetary-scale convectively coupled…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-03-21 Yogenraj Patil , Gaurav Chopra , Shruti Tandon , B. N. Goswami , R. I. Sujith

Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-02-24 Guanghao Ran , Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the West African Monsoon (WAM) are dominant drivers of boreal summer precipitation variability in tropical and subtropical regions. Although the regional precipitation dynamics in these two regions have…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-05-15 Felix Strnad , Kieran M. R. Hunt , Niklas Boers , Bedartha Goswami

Some initial investigations into various atmospheric phenomena and the influence of the solar cycle on weather have been made. Strongly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices, which cause cold and dry winter weather in North West…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-05-21 Sally Dacie

Understanding droughts in a climate context remains a major challenge. Over the United States, different choices of observations and metrics have often produced diametrically opposite insights. This paper focuses on understanding and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-12-31 Poulomi Ganguli , Auroop R. Ganguly

The longitudinal structure and annual cycle of mean meridional and eddy momentum fluxes in the tropical upper troposphere are studied. In zonal mean, these two terms oppose each other and peak during the Indian summer monsoon. This zonal…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-08-19 Abu Bakar Siddiqui Thakur , Jai Sukhatme

The north Indian Ocean accounts for 6% of the global tropical cyclones annually. Despite the small fraction of cyclones, some of the most devastating cyclones have formed in this basin, causing extensive damage to the life and property in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-02-17 Vineet Kumar Singh , M K Roxy
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