Related papers: Rare events in stochastic processes with sub-expon…

The prediction and control of rare events is an important task in disciplines that range from physics and biology, to economics and social science. The Big Jump principle deals with a peculiar aspect of the mechanism that drives rare…

We study rare events in the extreme value statistics of stochastic symmetric jump processes with power tails in the distributions of the jumps, using the big-jump principle. The principle states that in the presence of stochastic processes…

Rare events in the first-passage distributions of jump processes are capable of triggering anomalous reactions or series of events. Estimating their probability is particularly important when the jump probabilities have broad-tailed…

The big jump principle is a well established mathematical result for sums of independent and identically distributed random variables extracted from a fat tailed distribution. It states that the tail of the distribution of the sum is the…

We consider a modulated process S which, conditional on a background process X, has independent increments. Assuming that S drifts to -infinity and that its increments (jumps) are heavy-tailed (in a sense made precise in the paper), we…

Extreme events are by nature rare and difficult to predict, yet are often much more important than frequent, typical events. An interesting counterpoint to the prediction of such events is their retrodiction -- given a process in an outlier…

The big jump principle explains the emergence of extreme events for physical quantities modelled by a sum of independent and identically distributed random variables which are heavy-tailed. Extreme events are large values of the sum and…

The problem of sums of independent, identically distributed random variables with stretched-exponential tails exhibits a dynamical phase transition and has recently reemerged in the context of active transport and condensation phenomena. We…

We discuss diffusion properties of a dynamical system, which is characterised by long-tail distributions and finite correlations. The particle velocity has the stable L\'evy distribution; it is assumed as a jumping process (the kangaroo…

We propose a class of strongly efficient rare event simulation estimators for random walks and compound Poisson processes with a regularly varying increment/jump-size distribution in a general large deviations regime. Our estimator is based…

The L\'evy, jumping process, defined in terms of the jumping size distribution and the waiting time distribution, is considered. The jumping rate depends on the process value. The fractional diffusion equation, which contains the variable…

Particle hopping is a common feature in heterogeneous media. We explore such motion by using the widely applicable formalism of the continuous time random walk and focus on the statistics of rare events. Numerous experiments have shown that…

In this paper we develop a perturbation method to predict the rate of occurrence of rare events for singularly perturbed stochastic systems using a probability density function approach. In contrast to a stochastic normal form approach, we…

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

It is well-known that large deviations of random walks driven by independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables are governed by the so-called principle of one large jump. We note that further subtleties hold for such…

Heavy-tailed distributions are found throughout many naturally occurring phenomena. We have reviewed the models of stochastic dynamics that lead to heavy-tailed distributions (and power law distributions, in particular) including the…

Let $X$ be a L\'evy process with regularly varying L\'evy measure $\nu$. We obtain sample-path large deviations for scaled processes $\bar X_n(t) \triangleq X(nt)/n$ and obtain a similar result for random walks. Our results yield detailed…

In a growing number of strongly disordered and dense systems, the dynamics of a particle pulled by an external force field exhibits super-diffusion. In the context of glass forming systems, super cooled glasses and contamination spreading…

In this paper, we address rare-event simulation for heavy-tailed L\'evy processes with infinite activities. The presence of infinite activities poses a critical challenge, making it impractical to simulate or store the precise sample path…

This paper describes the stochastic Levy--Lorentz gas driven by general long-range reference random walk on correlated and entangled random medium. Further consideration has been laid on the stochastic reinforcement of the underlying random…