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Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments is a common problem in practice, for example, in studying average dose-response functions. Classical analyses typically assume that all confounders are fully observed, whereas in real-world…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Shuyuan Chen , Peng Zhang , Yifan Cui

The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-03 T. Martinussen , S. Vansteelandt , E. J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , D. M. Zucker

In this paper, we extend the Riesz representation framework to causal inference under sample selection, where both treatment assignment and outcome observability are non-random. Formulating the problem in terms of a Riesz representer…

When estimating causal effects from observational data with numerous covariates, employing penalized covariate selection can improve the estimation efficiency. Outcome-oriented covariate selection, which involves selecting covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-14 Wataru Hongo , Shuji Ando , Jun Tsuchida , Takashi Sozu

As the maximum likelihood method is the most commonly used method for parameters estimation being unbiased, consistent, efficient, and asymptotically normal, MLE is used to fit the new distribution (MBUW). But in small to moderate sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-17 Iman Mohammed Attia

Comparative effectiveness research often involves evaluating the differences in the risks of an event of interest between two or more treatments using observational data. Often, the post-treatment outcome of interest is whether the event…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-18 Youfei Yu , Min Zhang , Bhramar Mukherjee

Estimating causal effects from observational data is challenging due to selection bias, which leads to imbalanced covariate distributions across treatment groups. Propensity score-based weighting methods are widely used to address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Ahmad Saeed Khan , Erik Schaffernicht , Johannes Andreas Stork

In this paper, we discuss causal inference on the efficacy of a treatment or medication on a time-to-event outcome with competing risks. Although the treatment group can be randomized, there can be confoundings between the compliance and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-06 Cheng Zheng , Ran Dai , Parameswaran Hari , Mei-Jie Zhang

Panel data methods are widely used in empirical analysis to address unobserved heterogeneity, but causal inference remains challenging when treatments are endogenous and confounding variables high-dimensional and potentially nonlinear.…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-24 Anna Baiardi , Paul S. Clarke , Andrea A. Naghi , Annalivia Polselli

Estimating population-level effects of a vaccine is challenging because there may be interference, i.e., the outcome of one individual may depend on the vaccination status of another individual. Partial interference occurs when individuals…

Researchers are often interested in estimating effects of generalized time-varying treatment strategies on the mean of an outcome at one or more selected follow-up times of interest. For example, the Medications and Weight Gain in PCORnet…

I analyze a linear instrumental variables model with a single endogenous regressor and many instruments. I use invariance arguments to construct a new minimum distance objective function. With respect to a particular weight matrix, the…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-20 Michal Kolesár

Methodological development of the Model-implied Instrumental Variable (MIIV) estimation framework has proved fruitful over the last three decades. Major milestones include Bollen's (1996) original development of the MIIV estimator and its…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Zachary F. Fisher , Kenneth A. Bollen

Instrumental variable methods provide useful tools for inferring causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. To apply these methods with large-scale data sets, a major challenge is to find valid instruments from a possibly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-24 Xinyi Zhang , Linbo Wang , Stanislav Volgushev , Dehan Kong

Instrumental variable analysis is a widely used method to estimate causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. When the instruments, exposure and outcome are not measured in the same sample, Angrist and Krueger (1992)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-07 Qingyuan Zhao , Jingshu Wang , Jack Bowden , Dylan S. Small

We propose a method to debias estimators based on U-statistics with Machine Learning (ML) first-steps. Standard plug-in estimators often suffer from regularization and model-selection biases, producing invalid inferences. We show that…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-09 Juan Carlos Escanciano , Joël Robert Terschuur

This paper considers inference in a linear instrumental variable regression model with many potentially weak instruments, in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects. I first show that existing test procedures, including those that…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-24 Luther Yap

We present machine learning estimators for causal and predictive parameters under covariate shift, where covariate distributions differ between training and target populations. One such parameter is the average effect of a policy that…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Victor Chernozhukov , Michael Newey , Whitney K Newey , Rahul Singh , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Standard instrumental variables (IV) methods identify a Local Average Treatment Effect under monotonicity, which rules out defiers. In many empirical environments, however, distinct instruments may induce heterogeneous and even opposing…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-16 Johann Caro-Burnett

Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) provide a systematic framework for optimizing sequential decision-making in chronic disease management, where therapies must adapt to patients' evolving clinical profiles. Inverse probability weighting (IPW)…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Chloe Si , David A. Stephens , Erica E. M. Moodie