Related papers: Estimating uncertainty of earthquake rupture using…

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

We study probabilistic safety for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) under adversarial input perturbations. Given a compact set of input points, $T \subseteq \mathbb{R}^m$, we study the probability w.r.t. the BNN posterior that all the points…

Convolutional neural network (CNN) has achieved unprecedented success in image super-resolution tasks in recent years. However, the network's performance depends on the distribution of the training sets and degrades on out-of-distribution…

Direct observations of earthquake nucleation and propagation are few and yet the next decade will likely see an unprecedented increase in indirect, surface observations that must be integrated into modeling efforts. Machine learning (ML)…

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) place priors over the parameters in a neural network. Inference in BNNs, however, is difficult; all inference methods for BNNs are approximate. In this work, we empirically compare the quality of predictive…

Seismic tomography is a methodology to image subsurface properties of the Earth. In order to better interpret the resulting images, it is important to assess uncertainty in the results. Mixture density networks (MDNs) provide an efficient…

Post-disaster inspections are critical to emergency management after earthquakes. The availability of data on the condition of civil infrastructure immediately after an earthquake is of great importance for emergency management.…

The ground motion prediction equation is commonly used to predict the seismic intensity distribution. However, it is not easy to apply this method to seismic distributions affected by underground plate structures, which are commonly known…

For economic and efficiency reasons, blended acquisition of seismic data is becoming more and more commonplace. Seismic deblending methods are always computationally demanding and normally consist of multiple processing steps. Besides, the…

In this study, we propose a Bayesian seismic tomography inference method using physics-informed neural networks (PINN). PINN represents a recent advance in deep learning, offering the possibility to enhance physics-based simulations and…

Inputs to machine learning models can have associated noise or uncertainties, but they are often ignored and not modelled. It is unknown if Bayesian Neural Networks and their approximations are able to consider uncertainty in their inputs.…

We present a deep learning method for single-station earthquake location, which we approach as a regression problem using two separate Bayesian neural networks. We use a multi-task temporal-convolutional neural network to learn epicentral…

Bayesian neural Networks (BNNs) are a promising method of obtaining statistical uncertainties for neural network predictions but with a higher computational overhead which can limit their practical usage. This work explores the use of high…

Neural networks (NNs) are primarily developed within the frequentist statistical framework. Nevertheless, frequentist NNs lack the capability to provide uncertainties in the predictions, and hence their robustness can not be adequately…

Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Earthquake-related phenomena such as seismic waves and crustal deformation impact broad regions, requiring large-scale modeling with careful treatment of artificial outer boundaries. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have been…

Despite the promise of Convolutional neural network (CNN) based classification models for histopathological images, it is infeasible to quantify its uncertainties. Moreover, CNNs may suffer from overfitting when the data is biased. We show…

In the event of a nuclear accident, or the detonation of a radiological dispersal device, quickly locating the source of the accident or blast is important for emergency response and environmental decontamination. At a specified time after…

Representing and quantifying uncertainty in physical parameterisations is a central challenge in weather and climate modelling, and approaches are often developed separately for different timescales. Here, we introduce a unified framework…