Related papers: Sampling distribution for single-regression Grange…
Granger causality analysis is a popular method for inference on directed interactions in complex systems of many variables. A shortcoming of the standard framework for Granger causality is that it only allows for examination of interactions…
This paper develops a method for estimating parameters of a vector autoregression (VAR) observed in white noise. The estimation method assumes the noise variance matrix is known and does not require any iterative process. This study…
Applying the standard weighted mean formula, [sum_i {n_i sigma^{-2}_i}] / [sum_i {sigma^{-2}_i}], to determine the weighted mean of data, n_i, drawn from a Poisson distribution, will, on average, underestimate the true mean by ~1 for all…
Granger causality has been employed to investigate causality relations between components of stationary multiple time series. We generalize this concept by developing statistical inference for local Granger causality for multivariate…
A model-free measure of Granger causality in expectiles is proposed, generalizing the traditional mean-based measure to arbitrary positions of the conditional distribution. Expectiles are the only law-invariant risk measures that are both…
An approach is proposed for inferring Granger causality between jointly stationary, Gaussian signals from quantized data. First, a necessary and sufficient rank criterion for the equality of two conditional Gaussian distributions is proved.…
This paper presents likelihood-based inference methods for the family of univariate gamma-normal distributions GN({\alpha}, r, {\mu}, {\sigma}^2 ) that result from summing independent gamma({\alpha}, r) and N({\mu}, {\sigma}^2 ) random…
The likelihood ratio statistic, with its asymptotic $\chi^2$ distribution at regular model points, is often used for hypothesis testing. At model singularities and boundaries, however, the asymptotic distribution may not be $\chi^2$, as…
Granger causality (GC) is often considered not an actual form of causality. Still, it is arguably the most widely used method to assess the predictability of a time series from another one. Granger causality has been widely used in many…
Under the Neyman causal model, it is well-known that OLS with treatment-by-covariate interactions cannot harm asymptotic precision of estimated treatment effects in completely randomized experiments. But do such guarantees extend to…
We revisit the problem of estimating the mean of a real-valued distribution, presenting a novel estimator with sub-Gaussian convergence: intuitively, "our estimator, on any distribution, is as accurate as the sample mean is for the Gaussian…
It is well-known that each statistic in the family of power divergence statistics, across $n$ trials and $r$ classifications with index parameter $\lambda\in\mathbb{R}$ (the Pearson, likelihood ratio and Freeman-Tukey statistics correspond…
By exploiting the theory of skew-symmetric distributions, we generalise existing results in sensitivity analysis by providing the analytic expression of the bias induced by marginalization over an unobserved continuous confounder in a…
Generalized linear models are a popular tool in applied statistics, with their maximum likelihood estimators enjoying asymptotic Gaussianity and efficiency. As all models are wrong, it is desirable to understand these estimators' behaviours…
Let $\hat f_n$ be the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of a decreasing density. Grenander characterized this as the left-continuous slope of the least concave majorant of the empirical distribution function. For a sample from the…
We generalize the na\"ive estimator of a Poisson regression model with measurement errors as discussed in Kukush et al. [1]. The explanatory variable is not always normally distributed as they assume. In this study, we assume that the…
In condensed-matter, level statistics has long been used to characterize the phases of a disordered system. We provide evidence within the context of a simple model that in a disordered large-N gauge theory with a gravity dual, there exist…
Granger causality, a popular method for determining causal influence between stochastic processes, is most commonly estimated via linear autoregressive modeling. However, this approach has a serious drawback: if the process being modeled…
We study the problem of testing, using only a single sample, between mean field distributions (like Curie-Weiss, Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi) and structured Gibbs distributions (like Ising model on sparse graphs and Exponential Random Graphs). Our…
We consider a stationary linear AR($p$) model with observations subject to gross errors (outliers). The autoregression parameters are unknown as well as the distribution and moments of innoovations. The distribution of outliers $\Pi$ is…