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In this paper we propose an autoregressive wild bootstrap method to construct confidence bands around a smooth deterministic trend. The bootstrap method is easy to implement and does not require any adjustments in the presence of missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-12 Marina Friedrich , Stephan Smeekes , Jean-Pierre Urbain

Autoregressive models capture stochastic processes in which past realizations determine the generative distribution of new data; they arise naturally in a variety of industrial, biomedical, and financial settings. A key challenge when…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-30 Daren Wang , Yi Yu , Alessandro Rinaldo , Rebecca Willett

We introduce Autoregressive Graphical Models (AGMs) as an Ansatz for modeling the ground states of stoquastic Hamiltonians. Exact learning of these models for smaller systems show the dominance of the pairwise terms in the autoregressive…

The space time autoregressive model has been widely applied in science, in areas such as economics, public finance, political science, agricultural economics, environmental studies and transportation analyses. The classical space time…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-14 Wenqian Wang , Beth Andrews

The autoregressive (AR) models are used to represent the time-varying random process in which output depends linearly on previous terms and a stochastic term (the innovation). In the classical version, the AR models are based on normal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-15 Monika S. Dhull , Arun Kumar , Agnieszka Wylomanska

Forest transitions, characterized by dynamic shifts between forest, agricultural, and abandoned lands, are complex phenomena. This study developed a stochastic differential equation model to capture the intricate dynamics of these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-30 Satoshi Kumabe , Tianyu Song , Ton Viet Ta

Autoregressive models are widely used for tasks such as image and audio generation. The sampling process of these models, however, does not allow interruptions and cannot adapt to real-time computational resources. This challenge impedes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-24 Yilun Xu , Yang Song , Sahaj Garg , Linyuan Gong , Rui Shu , Aditya Grover , Stefano Ermon

Generalized autoregressive score (GAS) models are a class of observation-driven time series models that employ the score to dynamically update time-varying parameters of the underlying probability distribution. GAS models have been…

Computation · Statistics 2024-05-09 Vladimír Holý

Random forests are a learning algorithm proposed by Breiman [Mach. Learn. 45 (2001) 5--32] that combines several randomized decision trees and aggregates their predictions by averaging. Despite its wide usage and outstanding practical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-11 Erwan Scornet , Gérard Biau , Jean-Philippe Vert

This study introduces a novel spatial autoregressive model in which the dependent variable is a function that may exhibit functional autocorrelation with the outcome functions of nearby units. This model can be characterized as a…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-02 Tadao Hoshino

Dynamic regression trees are an attractive option for automatic regression and classification with complicated response surfaces in on-line application settings. We create a sequential tree model whose state changes in time with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-11-23 Matthew A. Taddy , Robert B. Gramacy , Nicholas G. Polson

In surveys, the interest lies in estimating finite population parameters such as population totals and means. In most surveys, some auxiliary information is available at the estimation stage. This information may be incorporated in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-23 Mehdi Dagdoug , Camelia Goga , David Haziza

An autoregressive-moving average model in which all roots of the autoregressive polynomial are reciprocals of roots of the moving average polynomial and vice versa is called an all-pass time series model. All-pass models are useful for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-22 Beth Andrews , Richard A. Davis , F. Jay Breidt

A novel first-order autoregressive moving average model for analyzing discrete-time series observed at irregularly spaced times is introduced. Under Gaussianity, it is established that the model is strictly stationary and ergodic. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-31 Cesar Ojeda , Wilfredo Palma , Susana Eyheramendy , Felipe Elorrieta

Time series of matrix-valued data are increasingly available in various areas including economics, finance, social science, among others. These data may shed light on the inter-dynamical relationships between two sets of attributes, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Fei Wu , Kung-Sik Chan

We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for sparse Gaussian graphical modeling of multivariate time series. We account for temporal correlation in the data by assuming that observations are characterized by an underlying and unobserved…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Beniamino Hadj-Amar , Aaron M. Bornstein , Michele Guindani , Marina Vannucci

Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models are a class of models that was developed for extending the univariate Gaussian ARMA time series model to a flexible observation-driven model for non-Gaussian time series data. This…

Applications · Statistics 2017-02-07 Marinho G. Andrade , Ricardo S. Ehlers , Breno S. Andrade

Autoregressive models have demonstrated great performance in natural language processing (NLP) with impressive scalability, adaptability and generalizability. Inspired by their notable success in NLP field, autoregressive models have been…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Kai Jiang , Jiaxing Huang

Bifurcating autoregressive processes, which can be seen as an adaptation of au-toregressive processes for a binary tree structure, have been extensively studied during the last decade in a parametric context. In this work we do not specify…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-12 Siméon Valère Bitseki Penda , Adélaïde Olivier

This paper studies some temporal dependence properties and addresses the issue of parametric estimation for a class of state-dependent autoregressive models for nonlinear time series in which we assume a stochastic autoregressive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Fabio Gobbi , Sabrina Mulinacci