Related papers: A regularized hidden Markov model for analyzing th…
We investigate the potential occurrence of change points - commonly referred to as "momentum shifts" - in the dynamics of football matches. For that purpose, we model minute-by-minute in-game statistics of Bundesliga matches using hidden…
Sports data analytics is a relevant topic in applied statistics that has been growing in importance in recent years. In basketball, a player or team has a hot hand when their performance during a match is better than expected or they are on…
Player modeling is an important concept that has gained much attention in game research due to its utility in developing adaptive techniques to target better designs for engagement and retention. Previous work has explored modeling…
Anticipating defensive coverage schemes is a crucial yet challenging task for offenses in American football. Because defenders' assignments are intentionally disguised before the snap, they remain difficult to recognize in real time. To…
A quest for uncovering influence of behaviour on team performance involves understanding individual behaviour, interactions with others and environment, variations across groups, and effects of interventions. Although insights into each of…
Evaluating off-ball defensive performance in football is challenging, as traditional metrics do not capture the nuanced coordinated movements that limit opponent action selection and success probabilities. Although widely used possession…
Data collected by wearable devices in sports provide valuable information about an athlete's behavior such as their activity, performance, and ability. These time series data can be studied with approaches such as hidden Markov and…
For multivariate time series driven by underlying states, hidden Markov models (HMMs) constitute a powerful framework which can be flexibly tailored to the situation at hand. However, in practice it can be challenging to choose an adequate…
Although the data-driven analysis of football players' performance has been developed for years, most research only focuses on the on-ball event including shots and passes, while the off-ball movement remains a little-explored area in this…
Determining the value of basketball players through analyzing the players' behavior is important for the managers of modern basketball teams. However, conventional methods always utilize isolated statistical data, leading to ineffective and…
In recent years, data-driven approaches have become a popular tool in a variety of sports to gain an advantage by, e.g., analysing potential strategies of opponents. Whereas the availability of play-by-play or player tracking data in sports…
We investigate the hot hand phenomenon using data on 110,513 free throws taken in the National Basketball Association (NBA). As free throws occur at unevenly spaced time points within a game, we consider a state-space model formulated in…
The availability of tracking data in football presents unique opportunities for analyzing team shape and player roles, but leveraging it effectively remains challenging. This difficulty arises from the significant overlap in player…
In this paper we describe an approach to resolve strategic games in which players can assume different types along the game. Our goal is to infer which type the opponent is adopting at each moment so that we can increase the player's odds.…
Continuous-time assessments of game outcomes in sports have become increasingly common in the last decade. In American football, only discrete-time estimates of play value were possible, since the most advanced public football datasets were…
The main focus of this work is on developing models for the activity profile of a terrorist group, detecting sudden spurts and downfalls in this profile, and, in general, tracking it over a period of time. Toward this goal, a $d$-state…
Handball has received growing interest during the last years, including academic research for many different aspects of the sport. On the other hand modelling the outcome of the game has attracted less interest mainly because of the…
In this paper, we study collective interaction dynamics emerging in the game of football-soccer. To do so, we surveyed a database containing body-sensors traces measured during three professional football matches, where we observed…
In soccer games, the goalkeeper's performance is an important factor to the success of the whole team. Despite the goalkeeper's importance, little attention has been paid to their performance in events and tracking data. Here, we developed…
This paper aims to revisit and expand upon previous work on the "hot hand" phenomenon in basketball, specifically in the NBA. Using larger, modern data sets, we test streakiness of shooting patterns and the presence of hot hand behavior in…