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Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-03 George Papamakarios , Iain Murray

In real-world Bayesian inference applications, prior assumptions regarding the parameters of interest may be unrepresentative of their actual values for a given dataset. In particular, if the likelihood is concentrated far out in the wings…

Computation · Statistics 2018-11-01 Xi Chen , Mike Hobson , Saptarshi Das , Paul Gelderblom

Inference for doubly intractable distributions is challenging because the intractable normalizing functions of these models include parameters of interest. Previous auxiliary variable MCMC algorithms are infeasible for multi-dimensional…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-07 Jaewoo Park

Simulation-based inference has been popular for amortized Bayesian computation. It is typical to have more than one posterior approximation, from different inference algorithms, different architectures, or simply the randomness of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-04 Yuling Yao , Bruno Régaldo-Saint Blancard , Justin Domke

Model-assisted estimation with complex survey data is an important practical problem in survey sampling. When there are many auxiliary variables, selecting significant variables associated with the study variable would be necessary to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-01 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Jae Kwang Kim

We propose a novel use of a recent new computational tool for Bayesian inference, namely the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methodology. ABC is a way to handle models for which the likelihood function may be intractable or even…

Computation · Statistics 2014-03-04 Clara Grazian , Brunero Liseo

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Yufei Cui , Wuguannan Yao , Qiao Li , Antoni B. Chan , Chun Jason Xue

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Tim Pearce , Felix Leibfried , Alexandra Brintrup , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

This paper provides a review of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods for carrying out Bayesian posterior inference, through the lens of density estimation. We describe several recent algorithms and make connection with traditional…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-09 Clara Grazian , Yanan Fan

A new approach for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and selection is proposed, based on the mixture model approach for hypothesis testing in Kaniav et al., 2014. Inheriting from the good properties of this approach, it extends BMA to cases…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-02 Merlin Keller , Kaniav Kamary

This article addresses the issue of estimating observation parameters (response and error parameters) in inverse problems. The focus is on cases where regularization is introduced in a Bayesian framework and the prior is modeled by a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-13 Jean-François Giovannelli

Both Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and composite likelihood methods are useful for Bayesian and frequentist inference, respectively, when the likelihood function is intractable. We propose to use composite likelihood score…

Computation · Statistics 2015-02-25 Erlis Ruli , Nicola Sartori , Laura Ventura

Bayesian estimation is a powerful theoretical paradigm for the operation of quantum sensors. However, the Bayesian method for statistical inference generally suffers from demanding calibration requirements that have so far restricted its…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-09-22 Samuel P. Nolan , Augusto Smerzi , Luca Pezzè

When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-05 Ryan Martin

Bayesian methods estimate a measure of uncertainty by using the posterior distribution. One source of difficulty in these methods is the computation of the normalizing constant. Calculating exact posterior is generally intractable and we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-17 Farzaneh Mahdisoltani

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular method for approximate inference in generative models with intractable but easy-to-sample likelihood. It constructs an approximate posterior distribution by finding parameters for which…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-09 Kimia Nadjahi , Valentin De Bortoli , Alain Durmus , Roland Badeau , Umut Şimşekli

Modeled along the truncated approach in Panigrahi (2016), selection-adjusted inference in a Bayesian regime is based on a selective posterior. Such a posterior is determined together by a generative model imposed on data and the selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-12 Snigdha Panigrahi , Jonathan Taylor

Doubly intractable distributions arise in many settings, for example in Markov models for point processes and exponential random graph models for networks. Bayesian inference for these models is challenging because they involve intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-03 Jaewoo Park , Murali Haran

Many approximate Bayesian inference methods assume a particular parametric form for approximating the posterior distribution. A multivariate Gaussian distribution provides a convenient density for such approaches; examples include the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-20 Jackson Zhou , Clara Grazian , John Ormerod

Performing exact posterior inference in complex generative models is often difficult or impossible due to an expensive to evaluate or intractable likelihood function. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an inference framework that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-02-16 Jovana Mitrovic , Dino Sejdinovic , Yee Whye Teh