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This paper introduces forward-looking measures of the network connectedness of fears in the financial system, arising due to the good and bad beliefs of market participants about uncertainty that spreads unequally across a network of banks.…
Geopolitical and geoeconomic shocks reprice sovereign credit risk through different transmission channels. Using a daily panel of 42 advanced and emerging economies over 2018--2025, we show that geopolitical shocks raise sovereign CDS…
Infectious diseases are studied to understand their spreading mechanisms, to evaluate control strategies and to predict the risk and course of future outbreaks. Because people only interact with a small number of individuals, and because…
Using the dynamics of information propagation on a network as our illustrative example, we present and discuss a systematic approach to quantifying heterogeneity and its propagation that borrows established tools from Uncertainty…
We study the dynamics of epidemic spreading processes aimed at spontaneous dissemination of information updates in populations with complex connectivity patterns. The influence of the topological structure of the network in these processes…
In the present work the spread of epidemic is studied over complex networks which are characterized by power law degree distribution of links and heterogeneous rate of disease transmission. The random allocation of epidemic transmission…
We analyze cascades of defaults in an interbank loan market. The novel feature of this study is that the network structure and the size distribution of banks are derived from empirical data. We find that the ability of a defaulted…
Networks are frequently used to model complex systems comprised of interacting elements. While edges capture the topology of direct interactions, the true complexity of many systems originates from higher-order patterns in paths by which…
The recent financial crisis has stressed the need to understand financial systems as networks of interdependent countries, where cross-border financial linkages play the fundamental role. It has also been emphasized that the relevance of…
This work explores the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose links distributions approaches a power law, using a model that defines banks balance sheets from information of network connectivity. By varying the parameters…
Statistical properties of binary complex networks are well understood and recently many attempts have been made to extend this knowledge to weighted ones. There is, however, a subtle difference between networks where weights are continuos…
Many-body systems can have multiple equilibria. Though the energy of equilibria might be the same, still systems may resist to switch from an unfavored equilibrium to a favored one. In this paper we investigate occurrence of such phenomenon…
Economists often rely on estimates of linear fixed effects models produced by other teams of researchers. Assessing the uncertainty in these estimates can be challenging. I propose a form of sample splitting for networks that partitions the…
We consider a model of financial contagion in a bipartite network of assets and banks recently introduced in the literature, and we study the effect of power law distributions of degree and balance-sheet size on the stability of the system.…
We study the role and drivers of persistence in the extensive margin of bilateral trade. Motivated by a stylized heterogeneous firms model of international trade with market entry costs, we consider dynamic three-way fixed effects binary…
The spread of new ideas, behaviors or technologies has been extensively studied using epidemic models. Here we consider a model of diffusion where the individuals' behavior is the result of a strategic choice. We study a simple coordination…
A minimal stochastic dynamical model of the interbank network is introduced, with linear interactions mediated by an integral of recent variations. Defining stress as the variance over the banks' states, the interaction correction to the…
Complex systems are characterized by multiple spatial and temporal scales. A natural framework to capture their multiscale nature is that of multilayer networks, where different layers represent distinct physical processes that often…
Understanding the structure and formation of networks is a central topic in complexity science. Economic networks are formed by decisions of individual agents and thus not properly described by established random graph models. In this…
In temporal networks, both the topology of the underlying network and the timings of interaction events can be crucial in determining how some dynamic process mediated by the network unfolds. We have explored the limiting case of the speed…