Related papers: Bayesian state-space modeling for analyzing hetero…
We model a network economy with three sectors: downstream firms, upstream firms, and banks. Agents are linked by productive and credit relationships so that the behavior of one agent influences the behavior of the others through network…
The topology of production networks determines the propagation mechanisms of local shocks and thus the co-movement of industries. As a result, we need a more precisely defined production network to model economic growth accurately. In this…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model including time-varying predictors in dynamic network inference. The model is applied to infer the dependence structure among financial markets during the global financial crisis, estimating effects…
We introduce a parsimonious multi-sector model of international production and use it to study the impact of a disruption in the production of some goods propagates to other goods and consumers, and how that impact depends on the goods'…
Empirical temporal networks display strong heterogeneities in their dynamics, which profoundly affect processes taking place on these networks, such as rumor and epidemic spreading. Despite the recent wealth of data on temporal networks,…
Distress propagation occurs in connected networks, its rate and extent being dependent on network topology. To study this, we choose economic production networks as a paradigm. An economic network can be examined at many levels: linkages…
We consider a model of contagion in financial networks recently introduced in the literature, and we characterize the effect of a few features empirically observed in real networks on the stability of the system. Notably, we consider the…
We introduce economic models based on Boolean Delay Equations: this formalism makes easier to take into account the complexity of the interactions between firms and is particularly appropriate for studying the propagation of an initial…
In this paper, we introduce an impact centrality measure to evaluate shock propagation on financial networks capturing a notion of contagion and systemic risk contributions, permitting comparisons of these risks over time. In addition, we…
We investigate the impact of network heterogeneity on synergistic contagion dynamics. By extending a synergistic contagion model to diverse heterogeneous network topologies, we uncover the emergence of novel dynamical regimes characterized…
Large scale networks delineating collective dynamics often exhibit cascading failures across nodes leading to a system-wide collapse. Prominent examples of such phenomena would include collapse on financial and economic networks.…
The structure of a network dramatically affects the spreading phenomena unfolding upon it. The contact distribution of the nodes has long been recognized as the key ingredient in influencing the outbreak events. However, limited knowledge…
Using rich Swedish administrative data, we apply causal machine learning methods to study how earnings losses after job displacement vary with observable characteristics that may be relevant for targeting policy interventions for workers.…
Weighted networks capture the structure of complex systems where interaction strength is meaningful. This information is essential to a large number of processes, such as threshold dynamics, where link weights reflect the amount of…
The DebtRank algorithm has been increasingly investigated as a method to estimate the impact of shocks in financial networks, as it overcomes the limitations of the traditional default-cascade approaches. Here we formulate a dynamical…
I study the role of industries' position in supply chains in shaping the transmission of final demand shocks. First, I use a novel shift-share design leveraging destination-specific final demand shocks and a new measure of destination…
In this paper, we explore the relationship between state-level household income inequality and macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States. Using a novel large-scale macroeconometric model, we shed light on regional disparities of…
Using a semi-structural approach, the paper identifies how heterogeneity and financial frictions affect the transmission of aggregate shocks. Approximating a heterogeneous agent model around the representative agent allocation can…
The dynamics of network social contagion processes such as opinion formation and epidemic spreading are often mediated by interactions between multiple nodes. Previous results have shown that these higher-order interactions can profoundly…
Banking system crises are complex events that in a short span of time can inflict extensive damage to banks themselves and to the external economy. The crisis literature has so far identified a number of distinct effects or channels that…