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The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-06 Louise Largeau , Tom Beucler , David Leutwyler , Gregoire Mariethoz , Valerie Chavez-Demoulin , Erwan Koch

Aiming to deliver improved precipitation simulations for hydrological impact assessment studies, we develop a methodology for modelling and simulating high-dimensional spatial precipitation extremes, focusing on both their marginal…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-01 Silius M. Vandeskog , Raphaël Huser , Oddbjørn Bruland , Sara Martino

The appropriateness of the Poisson model is frequently challenged when examining spatial count data marked by unbalanced distributions, over-dispersion, or under-dispersion. Moreover, traditional parametric models may inadequately capture…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-26 Mahsa Nadifar , Andriette Bekker , Mohammad Arashi , Abel Ramoelo

Spatio-temporal models are widely used in many research areas including ecology. The recent proliferation of the use of in-situ sensors in streams and rivers supports space-time water quality modelling and monitoring in near real-time. A…

Recently, deep-learning weather forecasting models have surpassed traditional numerical models in terms of the accuracy of meteorological variables. However, there is considerable potential for improvements in precipitation forecasts,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-20 Weiwen Ji , Jin Feng , Yueqi Liu , Yulu Qiu , Hua Gao

In recent years, there has been growing interest in using Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) signal delays to predict rainfall. However, the occurrence of rainfall is dependent on a myriad of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-01-08 Shilpa Manandhar , Soumyabrata Dev , Yee Hui Lee , Yu Song Meng , Stefan Winkler

Landslides are nearly ubiquitous phenomena and pose severe threats to people, properties, and the environment. Investigators have for long attempted to estimate landslide hazard to determine where, when, and how destructive landslides are…

Applications · Statistics 2019-12-04 Luigi Lombardo , Thomas Opitz , Francesca Ardizzone , Fausto Guzzetti , Raphaël Huser

In climate science and meteorology, high-resolution local precipitation (rain and snowfall) predictions are limited by the computational costs of simulation-based methods. Statistical downscaling, or super-resolution, is a common workaround…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Prakhar Srivastava , Ruihan Yang , Gavin Kerrigan , Gideon Dresdner , Jeremy McGibbon , Christopher Bretherton , Stephan Mandt

Intuitively, one would expect a more skillful forecast if predicting weather averaged over one week instead of the weather averaged over one day, and similarly for different spatial averaging areas. However, there are few systematic studies…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-07-28 Ying Li , Samuel N. Stechmann

Rainfall in coastal areas of the tropics is often shaped by the presence of circulations directly associated with the topography, such as land-sea and/or mountain-valley breezes. In many regions the coastally-affected rainfall consitutes…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-05-09 Martin Bergemann , Christian Jakob , Todd P. Lane

To disentangle the complex non-stationary dependence structure of precipitation extremes over the entire contiguous U.S., we propose a flexible local approach based on factor copula models. Our sub-asymptotic spatial modeling framework…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-26 Daniela Castro-Camilo , Raphaël Huser

Extreme streamflow is a key indicator of flood risk, and quantifying the changes in its distribution under non-stationary climate conditions is key to mitigating the impact of flooding events. We propose a non-stationary process mixture…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-08 Reetam Majumder , Brian Reich

Accurate modeling of daily rainfall, encompassing both dry and wet days as well as extreme precipitation events, is critical for robust hydrological and climatological analyses. This study proposes a zero-inflated extended generalized…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-01 Aamar Abbas , Touqeer Ahmad , Ishfaq Ahmad

We present a stochastic mean-reverting jump-diffusion model to simulate rainfall time series and validate it using long-term half-hourly rain fall data from the North-East region of India. The model captures the intermittent and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-10 Joya GhoshDastider , D. Pal , Pankaj Kumar Mishra

Tropical cyclones are important drivers of coastal flooding which have severe negative public safety and economic consequences. Due to the rare occurrence of such events, high spatial and temporal resolution historical storm precipitation…

Applications · Statistics 2020-11-20 William Kleiber , Stephan Sain , Luke Madaus , Patrick Harr

Motivated by the EVA 2025 Data Challenge, we address the problem of predicting extreme rainfall in the eastern United States using data from a large ensemble of climate model runs. The challenge focuses on three quantities of interest…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-20 Ryan Campbell , Kristina Grolmusova , Lydia Kakampakou , Jeongjin Lee

Current Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)-based flood detection methods face critical limitations that hinder operational deployment. Supervised learning approaches require extensive labeled training data, exhibit poor geographical…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-15 Narumasa Tsutsumida , Tomohiro Tanaka , Nifat Sultana

The paper presents improved mathematical models and methods for statistical regularities in the behavior of some important characteristics of precipitation: duration of a wet period, maximum daily and total precipitation volumes within a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-01 Victor Korolev , Andrey Gorshenin

Nonlinear plant-scale interactions controlling the soil-water balance are generally not valid at larger spatial scales due to spatial heterogeneity in rainfall and vegetation type. The relationships between spatially averaged variables are…

Rainfall is a climatic factor that affects many human activities like agriculture, construction, and forestry. Rainfall is dependent on various meteorological features and its prediction is a very complex task due to the dynamic climatic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-10-22 Muhammad Salman Pathan , Jiantao Wu , Yee Hui Lee , Jianzhuo Yan , Soumyabrata Dev
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