Related papers: Beveridgean Unemployment Gap
Traditionally, the impact of minimum wages on employment has been studied, and it is generally believed to have a negative effect. Yet, some recent studies have shown that the impact of minimum wages on employment can sometimes be positive.…
We develop a deep learning model of multi-period mortgage risk and use it to analyze an unprecedented dataset of origination and monthly performance records for over 120 million mortgages originated across the US between 1995 and 2014. Our…
The overwhelming majority of homeless individuals are jobless, despite many expressing a willingness to work. While this strong individual-level link between homelessness and unemployment is well-documented, the broader impact of labor…
Income inequality is known to have negative impacts on an economic system, thus has been debated for a hundred years past or more. Numerous ideas have been proposed to quantify income inequality, and the Gini coefficient is a prevalent…
Skill shortages are a drain on society. They hamper economic opportunities for individuals, slow growth for firms, and impede labor productivity in aggregate. Therefore, the ability to understand and predict skill shortages in advance is…
Work is fundamental to societal prosperity and mental health, providing financial security, identity, purpose, and social integration. The emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has catalysed debate on job displacement. Some…
This paper empirically assesses predictions of Goodwin's model of cyclical growth regarding demand and distributive regimes when integrating the real and financial sectors. In addition, it evaluates how financial and employment shocks…
This paper evaluates the dynamic response of economic activity to shocks in uncertainty as percieved by agents.The study focuses on the comparison between the perception of economic uncertainty by manufacturers and consumers.Since…
During the last decades particular effort has been directed towards understanding and predicting the relevant state of the business cycle with the objective of decomposing permanent shocks from those having only a transitory impact on real…
When a firm hires a worker, adding the new hire to payroll is costly. These costs reduce the amount of resources that can go to recruiting workers and amplify how unemployment responds to changes in productivity. Workers also incur up-front…
This paper establishes the functional average as an important estimand for causal inference. The significance of the estimand lies in its robustness against traditional issues of confounding. We prove that this robustness holds even when…
Workers without formal credentials experience substantially lower employment rates than their credentialed counterparts, but the extent to which information frictions contribute to these disparities remains unclear. We conducted a…
We study an optimal wage band problem in a competitive matching labor market where education signals worker ability. We prove uniqueness of the competitive signaling equilibrium under a general class of utility and profit functions and show…
Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…
U.S. Nonfarm employment is considered one of the key indicators for assessing the state of the labor market. Considerable deviations from the expectations can cause market moving impacts. In this paper, the total U.S. nonfarm payroll…
Energy efficiency gains in production and consumption are undisputed economic and environmental goals. However, potential energy savings derived from efficiency innovations may have short-lasting effects due to increased demand for more…
Cognitive endurance -- the ability to sustain performance on a cognitively-demanding task over time -- is thought to be a crucial productivity determinant. However, a lack of data on this variable has limited researchers' ability to…
Low inflation was once a welcome to both policy makers and the public. However, Japan's experience during the 1990's changed the consensus view on price of economists and central banks around the world. Facing deflation and zero interest…
Restarting a deterministic process always impedes its completion. However, it is known that restarting a random process can also lead to an opposite outcome -- expediting completion. Hence, the effect of restart is contingent on the…
Evidence on the effectiveness of retraining U.S. unemployed workers primarily comes from evaluations of training programs, which represent one narrow avenue for skill acquisition. We use high-quality records from Ohio and a matching method…