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We continue study of conformal testing in binary model situations. In this note we consider Markov alternatives to the null hypothesis of exchangeability. We propose two new classes of conformal test martingales; one class is statistically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-04 Vladimir Vovk , Ilia Nouretdinov , Alex Gammerman

Using the age-structure formalism, we definitely establish connections between semi-Markov processes and the dynamics of open quantum systems that satisfy the Markov quantum master equations. A generalized Feynman-Kac formula of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-12-07 Fei Liu

Computing reachability probabilities is a fundamental problem in the analysis of probabilistic programs. This paper aims at a comprehensive and comparative account on various martingale-based methods for over- and under-approximating…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2018-11-16 Toru Takisaka , Yuichiro Oyabu , Natsuki Urabe , Ichiro Hasuo

In the last years, many authors studied a class of continuous time semi-Markov processes obtained by time-changing Markov processes by hitting times of independent subordinators. Such processes are governed by integro-differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-24 Angelica Pachon , Federico Polito , Costantino Ricciuti

In this paper, we consider a type of time-changed Markov process, where the time-change is an inverse killed subordinator. This can be seen as an extension of Chen (Chen, Z., Time fractional equations and probabilistic representation, Chaos…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-09 Huiyan Zhao , Siyan xu

This paper gives a complete characterization of infinitely divisible semimartingales, i.e., semimartingales whose finite dimensional distributions are infinitely divisible. An explicit and essentially unique decomposition of such…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-02 Andreas Basse-O'Connor , Jan Rosinski

Let $\tilde{N}\_{t}$ be a standard compensated Poisson process on $[0,1]$. We prove a new characterization of anticipating integrals of the Skorohod type with respect to $\tilde{N}$, and use it to obtain several counterparts to well…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Giovanni Peccati , Ciprian A. Tudor

Stochastic processes with long memories, known as long memory processes, are ubiquitous in various science and engineering problems. Superposing Markovian stochastic processes generates a non-Markovian long memory process serving as…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-24 Hidekazu Yoshioka

We establish It\^o's formula along flows of probability measures associated with general semimartingales; this generalizes existing results for flows of measures on It\^o processes. Our approach is to first establish It\^o's formula for…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Xin Guo , Huyên Pham , Xiaoli Wei

In an M-type 2 Banach space, firstly we explore some properties of the set-valued stochastic integral associated with the stationary Poisson point process. By using the Hahn decomposition theorem and bounded linear functional, we obtain the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-10 Jinping Zhang , Itaru Mitoma , Yoshiaki Okazaki

Semi-Markov processes generalize Markov processes by adding temporal memory effects as expressed by a semi-Markov kernel. We recall the path weight for a semi-Markov trajectory and the fact that thermodynamic consistency in equilibrium…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-04-15 Benjamin Ertel , Jann van der Meer , Udo Seifert

The invariant measure is a fundamental object in the theory of Markov processes. In finite dimensions a Markov process is defined by transition rates of the corresponding stochastic matrix. The Markov tree theorem provides an explicit…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-08 Artur Stephan

We give a necessary and sufficient condition for a homogeneous Markov process taking values in $\R^n$ to enjoy the time-inversion property of degree $\alpha$. The condition sets the shape for the semigroup densities of the process and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Stephan Lawi

This paper is devoted to studying the weak convergence for a slow-fast system with jumps modulated by Markovian switching regimes with the martingale method. However, due to the coexistence of fast component and Markovian switching regimes,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-03-13 Yong Xu , Xiaoyu Yang , Bin Pei , Yuzhen Bai

A powerful tool for studying long-term convergence of a Markov process to its stationary distribution is a Lyapunov function. In some sense, this is a substitute for eigenfunctions. For a stochastically ordered Markov process on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-01 Andrey Sarantsev

In this paper we consider the problem of parameter inference for Markov jump process (MJP) representations of stochastic kinetic models. Since transition probabilities are intractable for most processes of interest yet forward simulation is…

Computation · Statistics 2014-09-16 Andrew Golightly , Darren J. Wilkinson

Uncertainty associated with statistical problems arises due to what has not been seen as opposed to what has been seen. Using probability to quantify the uncertainty the task is to construct a probability model for what has not been seen…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-06 Fuheng Cui , Stephen G. Walker

We obtain general weak existence and stability results for stochastic convolution equations with jumps under mild regularity assumptions, allowing for non-Lipschitz coefficients and singular kernels. Our approach relies on weak convergence…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-22 Eduardo Abi Jaber , Christa Cuchiero , Martin Larsson , Sergio Pulido

The main objective consists in generalizing a well-known It{\^o} formula of J. Jacod and A. Shiryaev: given a c{\`a}dl{\`a}g process S, there is an equivalence between the fact that S is a semimartingale with given characteristics (B^k , C,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-25 Elena Bandini , Francesco Russo

It is shown that due to memory effects the complex behaviour of components in a stochastic system can be transmitted to macroscopic evolution of the system as a whole. Within the Markov approximation widely using in ordinary statistical…

adap-org · Physics 2009-10-30 A. A. Stanislavsky
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