Related papers: Accurate Uncertainty Estimation and Decomposition …
Ensemble learning is a methodology that integrates multiple DNN learners for improving prediction performance of individual learners. Diversity is greater when the errors of the ensemble prediction is more uniformly distributed. Greater…
Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm to give access to highly accurate predictions of molecular and materials properties. A common short-coming shared by current approaches, however, is that neural networks only give point…
Ensemble weather forecasts enable a measure of uncertainty to be attached to each forecast, by computing the ensemble's spread. However, generating an ensemble with a good spread-error relationship is far from trivial, and a wide range of…
Uncertainty estimation is pivotal in machine learning, especially for classification tasks, as it improves the robustness and reliability of models. We introduce a novel `Epistemic Wrapping' methodology aimed at improving uncertainty…
Deep neural networks are powerful predictors for a variety of tasks. However, they do not capture uncertainty directly. Using neural network ensembles to quantify uncertainty is competitive with approaches based on Bayesian neural networks…
Deep Ensembles (DE) are a prominent approach for achieving excellent performance on key metrics such as accuracy, calibration, uncertainty estimation, and out-of-distribution detection. However, hardware limitations of real-world systems…
Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines…
Inputs to machine learning models can have associated noise or uncertainties, but they are often ignored and not modelled. It is unknown if Bayesian Neural Networks and their approximations are able to consider uncertainty in their inputs.…
Model uncertainty quantification involves measuring and evaluating the uncertainty linked to a model's predictions, helping assess their reliability and confidence. Noise injection is a technique used to enhance the robustness of neural…
Annotating the right data for training deep neural networks is an important challenge. Active learning using uncertainty estimates from Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) could provide an effective solution to this. Despite being theoretically…
Ensemble forecast based on physics-informed models is one of the most widely used forecast algorithms for complex turbulent systems. A major difficulty in such a method is the model error that is ubiquitous in practice. Data-driven machine…
Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…
Estimating and disentangling epistemic uncertainty, uncertainty that is reducible with more training data, and aleatoric uncertainty, uncertainty that is inherent to the task at hand, is critically important when applying machine learning…
Rigorous statistical methods, including parameter estimation with accompanying uncertainties, underpin the validity of scientific discovery, especially in the natural sciences. With increasingly complex data models such as deep learning…
Quantifying uncertainty in neural networks is a highly relevant problem which is essential to many applications. The two predominant paradigms to tackle this task are Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles. Despite some…
Uncertainty decomposition refers to the task of decomposing the total uncertainty of a predictive model into aleatoric (data) uncertainty, resulting from inherent randomness in the data-generating process, and epistemic (model) uncertainty,…
Despite the huge success of deep neural networks (NNs), finding good mechanisms for quantifying their prediction uncertainty is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are one of the most popular approaches to uncertainty…
The use of ensembles of neural networks (NNs) for the quantification of predictive uncertainty is widespread. However, the current justification is intuitive rather than analytical. This work proposes one minor modification to the normal…
Neural network ensembles, such as Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), have shown success in the areas of uncertainty estimation and robustness. However, a crucial challenge prohibits their use in practice. BNNs require a large number of…
We show that ensembling effectively quantifies model uncertainty in Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) if a density-aware epistemic uncertainty term is considered. The naive ensembles investigated in prior work simply average rendered RGB…