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We provide theoretical and empirical evidence for a type of asymmetry between causes and effects that is present when these are related via linear models contaminated with additive non-Gaussian noise. Assuming that the causes and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-02-23 Daniel Hernández-Lobato , Pablo Morales-Mombiela , David Lopez-Paz , Alberto Suárez

Gaussian processes are valuable tools for non-parametric modelling, where typically an assumption of stationarity is employed. While removing this assumption can improve prediction, fitting such models is challenging. In this work,…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-02 Karla Monterrubio-Gómez , Lassi Roininen , Sara Wade , Theo Damoulas , Mark Girolami

High-dimensional mediation analysis aims to identify mediating pathways and to estimate indirect effects linking an exposure to an outcome. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework to address key challenges in these analyses,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-13 Youngho Bae , Chanmin Kim , Fenglei Wang , Qi Sun , Kyu Ha Lee

Bayesian nonparametric mixture models offer a rich framework for model based clustering. We consider the situation where the kernel of the mixture is available only up to an intractable normalizing constant. In this case, most of the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-21 Mario Beraha , Riccardo Corradin

Existing methods in estimating the mean outcome under a given dynamic treatment regime rely on intention-to-treat analyses which estimate the effect of following a certain dynamic treatment regime regardless of compliance behavior of…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Existing work on Bayesian decision trees uses MCMC.…

Computation · Statistics 2023-01-24 Efthyvoulos Drousiotis , Paul G. Spirakis , Simon Maskell

Many research questions -- particularly those in environmental health -- do not involve binary exposures. In environmental epidemiology, this includes multivariate exposure mixtures with nondiscrete components. Causal inference estimands…

A new algorithm is developed to tackle the issue of sampling non-Gaussian model parameter posterior probability distributions that arise from solutions to Bayesian inverse problems. The algorithm aims to mitigate some of the hurdles faced…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-19 Leen Alawieh , Jonathan Goodman , John B. Bell

In this paper we propose to numerically assess the performance of standard Gaussian approximations to probe the posterior distribution that arises from Bayesian data assimilation in petroleum reservoirs. In particular we assess the…

Applications · Statistics 2012-12-11 Marco A. Iglesias , Kody J. H. Law , Andrew M. Stuart

We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…

Applications · Statistics 2016-07-28 Marta Tallarita , Maria De Iorio , Alessandra Guglielmi , James Malone-Lee

By formulating the inverse problem of partial differential equations (PDEs) as a statistical inference problem, the Bayesian approach provides a general framework for quantifying uncertainties. In the inverse problem of PDEs, parameters are…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Haoyu Lu , Junxiong Jia , Deyu Meng

An important goal of environmental health research is to assess the health risks posed by mixtures of multiple environmental exposures. In these mixtures analyses, flexible models like Bayesian kernel machine regression and multiple index…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-29 Glen McGee , Joseph Antonelli

Uncertainty of decisions in safety-critical engineering applications can be estimated on the basis of the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of averaging over decision models. The use of decision tree (DT) models assists…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2010-12-03 Vitaly Schetinin , Jonathan Fieldsend , Derek Partridge , Wojtek Krzanowski , Richard Everson , Trevor Bailey , Adolfo Hernandez

We develop a nonparametric Bayesian modeling framework for clustered ordinal responses in developmental toxicity studies, which typically exhibit extensive heterogeneity. The primary focus of these studies is to examine the dose-response…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-22 Jizhou Kang , Athanasios Kottas

We develop Bayesian models for density regression with emphasis on discrete outcomes. The problem of density regression is approached by considering methods for multivariate density estimation of mixed scale variables, and obtaining…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-14 Georgios Papageorgiou

Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-27 Daniel R. Kowal , Bohan Wu

We deal with Bayesian inference for Beta autoregressive processes. We restrict our attention to the class of conditionally linear processes. These processes are particularly suitable for forecasting purposes, but are difficult to estimate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-08-03 R. Casarin , L. Dalla Valle , F. Leisen

This study introduces a nonparametric definition of interaction and provides an approach to both interaction discovery and efficient estimation of this parameter. Using stochastic shift interventions and ensemble machine learning, our…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-01 David B. McCoy , Alan E. Hubbard , Alejandro Schuler , Mark J. van der Laan

Genetic association studies for brain connectivity phenotypes have gained prominence due to advances in non-invasive imaging techniques and quantitative genetics. Brain connectivity traits, characterized by network configurations and unique…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-17 Xinyuan Tian , Yiting Wang , Selena Wang , Yi Zhao , Yize Zhao

Estimating the joint effect of a multivariate, continuous exposure is crucial, particularly in environmental health where interest lies in simultaneously evaluating the impact of multiple environmental pollutants on health. We develop novel…

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