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The paper introduces a new estimation method for the standard linear regression model. The procedure is not driven by the optimisation of any objective function rather, it is a simple weighted average of slopes from observation pairs. The…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-27 Felix Chan , Laszlo Matyas

The classical sparse parameter identification methods are usually based on the iterative basis selection such as greedy algorithms, or the numerical optimization of regularized cost functions such as LASSO and Bayesian posterior probability…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-05 Yanxin Fu , Wenxiao Zhao

We propose to address the common problem of linear estimation in linear statistical models by using a model selection approach via penalization. Depending then on the framework in which the linear statistical model is considered namely the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-11 Ikhlef Bechar

Fluctuations in parameters that are typically treated as fixed play a crucial role in the behavior of complex systems. However, to date, we lack a general non-equilibrium thermodynamic treatment of such a complex system. In this Letter, to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-03-31 Tuan Pham , Deepak Gupta

When simulating molecular systems using deterministic equations of motion (e.g., Newtonian dynamics), such equations are generally numerically integrated according to a well-developed set of algorithms that share commonly agreed-upon…

Computational Physics · Physics 2014-08-08 David A. Sivak , John D. Chodera , Gavin E. Crooks

Ordinary Differential Equations are widespread tools to model chemical, physical, biological process but they usually rely on parameters which are of critical importance in terms of dynamic and need to be estimated directly from the data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-29 Nicolas Brunel , Quentin Clairon

State-space models (SSMs) are a powerful statistical tool for modelling time-varying systems via a latent state. In these models, the latent state is never directly observed. Instead, a sequence of data points related to the state are…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-22 Benjamin Cox , Victor Elvira

We develop a systematic approach to the linear-noise approximation for stochastic reaction systems with distributed delays. Unlike most existing work our formalism does not rely on a master equation, instead it is based upon a dynamical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-12-13 Tobias Brett , Tobias Galla

Estimation and counterfactual analysis in dynamic structural models rely on assumptions about the dynamic process of latent variables, which may be misspecified. We propose a framework to quantify the sensitivity of scalar parameters of…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-17 Ertian Chen

We propose new methods for multivariate linear regression when the regression coefficient matrix is sparse and the error covariance matrix is dense. We assume that the error covariance matrix has equicorrelation across the response…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Daeyoung Ham , Bradley S. Price , Adam J. Rothman

We propose novel parameter estimation algorithms for a class of dynamical systems with nonlinear parametrization. The class is initially restricted to smooth monotonic functions with respect to a linear functional of the parameters. We show…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ivan Tyukin , Danil Prokhorov , Cees van Leeuwen

Statistical inference on the explained variation of an outcome by a set of covariates is of particular interest in practice. When the covariates are of moderate to high-dimension and the effects are not sparse, several approaches have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-24 Hua Yun Chen

This survey provides an overview of optimal estimation of linear functionals which depend on the unknown values of a stationary stochastic sequence. Based on observations of the sequence without noise as well as observations of the sequence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-27 Mikhail Moklyachuk

A linearized Vlasov-Poisson system of equations is transformed into a Schr\"{o}dinger equation, which is used to demonstrate that the fluctuation theorem holds for the relative stochastic entropy, defined in terms of the probability density…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2025-08-11 Hideo Sugama

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-02-06 Dave Higdon , Jordan D. McDonnell , Nicolas Schunck , Jason Sarich , Stefan M. Wild

The recently proposed statistical finite element (statFEM) approach synthesises measurement data with finite element models and allows for making predictions about the unknown true system response. We provide a probabilistic error analysis…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Toni Karvonen , Fehmi Cirak , Mark Girolami

Many analyses based on the time-dependent Ginzburg--Landau model are not consistent with statistical mechanics, because thermal fluctuations are not taken correctly into account. We use the fluctuation-dissipation theorem in order to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-06-13 Jorge Berger

This paper concerns the adaptive control problem for a class of nonlinear stochastic systems in which the state update is given by a nonlinear function of linear dynamics plus additive stochastic noise. Such systems arise in a wide range of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-09 Lantian Zhang , Bo Wahlberg , Silun Zhang

This paper proposes a fast and accurate method for sparse regression in the presence of missing data. The underlying statistical model encapsulates the low-dimensional structure of the incomplete data matrix and the sparsity of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-31 Ravi Ganti , Rebecca M. Willett

A reduced chemical scheme involving a small number of variables is often sufficient to account for the deterministic evolution of the concentrations of the main species contributing to a reaction. However its predictions are questionable in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-10-28 Gabriel Morgado , Bogdan Nowakowski , Annie Lemarchand