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Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks are continuous time Markov chain models that describe the time evolution of the molecular counts of species interacting stochastically via discrete reactions. Such models are ubiquitous in systems and…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-02-01 Theodore W. Grunberg , Domitilla Del Vecchio

We consider continuous-space, discrete-time Markov chains on $\mathbb{R}^d$, that admit a finite number $N$ of metastable states. Our main motivation for investigating these processes is to analyse random Poincar\'e maps, which describe…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Nils Berglund

In this paper we present a novel method for estimating the parameters of a parametric diffusion processes. Our approach is based on a closed-form Maximum Likelihood estimator for an approximating Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 J. L. Kirkby , Dang Nguyen , Duy Nguyen , Nhu Nguyen

We present a new framework to derandomise certain Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. As in MCMC, we first reduce counting problems to sampling from a sequence of marginal distributions. For the latter task, we introduce a method…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Weiming Feng , Heng Guo , Chunyang Wang , Jiaheng Wang , Yitong Yin

In the paper we study continuous time controlled Markov processes using discrete time controlled Markov processes. We consider long run functionals: average reward per unit time or long run risk sensitive functional. We also investigate…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Lukasz Stettner

For predicting the kinetics of nucleic acid reactions, continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) are widely used. The rate of a reaction can be obtained through the mean first passage time (MFPT) of its CTMC. However, a typical issue in CTMCs…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-23 Sedigheh Zolaktaf , Frits Dannenberg , Mark Schmidt , Anne Condon , Erik Winfree

Continuous time Markov chains are commonly used as models for the stochastic behavior of chemical reaction networks. More precisely, these Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks (SCRNs) are frequently used to gain a mechanistic understanding…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Simone Bruno , Yi Fu , Felipe A. Campos , Domitilla Del Vecchio , Ruth J. Williams

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

Within systems biology there is an increasing interest in the stochastic behavior of genetic and biochemical reaction networks. An appropriate stochastic description is provided by the chemical master equation, which represents a continuous…

Biological Physics · Physics 2011-06-23 E. Giampieri , D. Remondini , L. de Oliveira , G. Castellani , P. Lió

Chaotic dynamics have emerged as a versatile resource for neuromorphic and probabilistic computing, enabling high-dimensional nonlinear processing and classical analogues of quantum randomness. Exploiting chaos for computation requires…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-05-20 Jungyoon Kim , Kyuho Kim , Kunwoo Park , Namkyoo Park , Sunkyu Yu

The limiting probability distribution is one of the key characteristics of a Markov chain since it shows its long-term behavior. In this paper, for a higher order Markov chain, we establish some properties related to its exact limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-20 Lixing Han , Jianhong Xu

Large continuous-time Markov chains with exponentially small transition rates arise in modeling complex systems in physics, chemistry and biology. We propose a constructive graph-algorithmic approach to determine the sequence of critical…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-01 Tingyue Gan , Maria Cameron

From genetic regulatory networks to nervous systems, the interactions between elements in biological networks often take a sigmoidal or S-shaped form. This paper develops a probabilistic characterization of the parameter space of…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2010-10-11 Randall D. Beer , Bryan Daniels

Markov chains on the non-negative quadrant of dimension $d$ are often used to model the stochastic dynamics of the number of $d$ entities, such as $d$ chemical species in stochastic reaction networks. The infinite state space poses…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-17 Wai-Tong Louis Fan , Jinsu Kim , Chaojie Yuan

In this article we propose a novel MCMC method based on deterministic transformations T: X x D --> X where X is the state-space and D is some set which may or may not be a subset of X. We refer to our new methodology as Transformation-based…

Computation · Statistics 2013-10-21 Somak Dutta , Sourabh Bhattacharya

This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-07 Zeyu Zheng , Harsha Honnappa , Peter W. Glynn

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a class of algorithms to sample complex and high-dimensional probability distributions. The Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, the workhorse of MCMC, provides a simple recipe to construct reversible…

We introduce multiple hidden Markov models (MHMMs) where an observed multivariate categorical time series depends on an unobservable multivariate Mar- kov chain. MHMMs provide an elegant framework for specifying various independence…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-17 Roberto Colombi , Sabrina Giordano

An algorithm for estimating quasi-stationary distribution of finite state space Markov chains has been proven in a previous paper. Now this paper proves a similar algorithm that works for general state space Markov chains under very general…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-04 Jose H. Blanchet , Peter Glynn , Shuheng Zheng

We consider particles that are conditioned to initial and final states. The trajectory of these particles is uniquely shaped by the intricate interplay of internal and external sources of randomness. The internal randomness is aptly…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-13 Daniel Owusu Adu , Yongxin Chen