Related papers: From microscopic price dynamics to multidimensiona…
We introduce and study a non-equilibrium continuous-time dynamical model of the price of a single asset traded by a population of heterogeneous interacting agents in the presence of uncertainty and regulatory constraints. The model takes…
In this paper, we propose and study a novel continuous-time model, based on the well-known constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model, to describe the asset price process. The basic idea is that the volatility elasticity of the CEV model…
This paper describes the dependence of market-based statistical moments of returns on statistical moments and correlations of the current and past trade values. We use Markowitz's definition of value weighted return of a portfolio as the…
This study proposes a versatile model for the dynamics of the best bid and ask prices using an extended Hawkes process. The model incorporates the zero intensities of the spread-narrowing processes at the minimum bid-ask spread,…
This paper investigates short-term behaviors of implied volatility of derivatives written on indexes in equity markets when the index processes are constructed by using a ranking procedure. Even in simple market settings where stock prices…
Trading styles can be classified into either trend-following or mean-reverting. If the net trading style is trend-following the traded asset is more likely to move in the same direction it moved previously (the opposite is true if the net…
In this paper, we develop a general rough volatility model for commodities that provides an automatic calibration of the initial term structure of the futures prices and an appropriate treatment of the Samuelson effect. After the…
Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this…
This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of suitably time-modulated Hawkes processes with heavy-tailed kernels in a nearly unstable regime. We show that, under appropriate scaling, both the intensity processes and the rescaled Hawkes…
The random values and volumes of consecutive trades made at the exchange with shares of security determine its mean, variance, and higher statistical moments. The volume weighted average price (VWAP) is the simplest example of such a…
Several phenomena are available representing market activity: volumes, number of trades, durations between trades or quotes, volatility - however measured - all share the feature to be represented as positive valued time series. When…
Event-driven systems in fields such as neuroscience, social networks, and finance often exhibit dynamics influenced by continuously evolving external covariates. Motivated by these applications, we introduce a new class of multivariate…
The random coefficients model is an extension of the linear regression model that allows for unobserved heterogeneity in the population by modeling the regression coefficients as random variables. Given data from this model, the statistical…
Soft materials (e.g., enveloped viruses, liposomes, membranes and supercooled liquids) simultaneously deform or display collective behaviors, while undergoing atomic scale vibrations and collisions. While the multiple space-time character…
We investigate how the properties of inhomogeneous patterns of activity, appearing in many natural and social phenomena, depend on the temporal resolution used to define individual bursts of activity. To this end, we consider time series of…
Deep learning methods have become a widespread toolbox for pricing and calibration of financial models. While they often provide new directions and research results, their `black box' nature also results in a lack of interpretability. We…
Using intraday data for the cross-section of individual stocks, we show that both transitory and persistent fluctuations in realized market and average idiosyncratic volatility, skewness and kurtosis are differentially priced in the…
We propose a new financial model, the stochastic volatility model with sticky drawdown and drawup processes (SVSDU model), which enables us to capture the features of winning and losing streaks that are common across financial markets but…
A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of…
Stablecoins, digital assets pegged to a specific currency or commodity value, are heavily involved in transactions of major cryptocurrencies. The effects of deviations from their desired fixed values (depeggings) on the cryptocurrencies for…