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We introduce a new geometric approach that constructs a transition kernel of Markov chain. Our method always minimizes the average rejection rate and even reduce it to zero in many relevant cases, which cannot be achieved by conventional…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-07-03 Hidemaro Suwa , Synge Todo

Markov jump processes and continuous time Bayesian networks are important classes of continuous time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of inferring unobserved paths in these models by introducing a fast auxiliary…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-02-20 Vinayak Rao , Yee Whye Teh

We study multiproposal Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, such as Multiple-try or generalised Metropolis-Hastings schemes, which have recently received renewed attention due to their amenability to parallel computing. First, we prove that…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-31 Francesco Pozza , Giacomo Zanella

We consider continuous time Markovian processes where populations of individual agents interact stochastically according to kinetic rules. Despite the increasing prominence of such models in fields ranging from biology to smart cities,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-16 Anastasis Georgoulas , Jane Hillston , Guido Sanguinetti

We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-31 Dan Crisan , Joaquin Miguez

A classical approach for approximating expectations of functions w.r.t. partially known distributions is to compute the average of function values along a trajectory of a Metropolis-Hastings (MH) Markov chain. A key part in the MH algorithm…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-20 Daniel Rudolf , Björn Sprungk

This paper presents a Bayesian method for identification of jump Markov linear system parameters. A primary motivation is to provide accurate quantification of parameter uncertainty without relying on asymptotic in data-length arguments. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-11 Mark P. Balenzuela , Adrian G. Wills , Christopher Renton , Brett Ninness

Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) proposals that achieve reasonable acceptance rates and mixing are notoriously difficult to design in most applications. Inspired by recent advances in deep neural network-based normalizing…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-28 Laurence Davies , Robert Salomone , Matthew Sutton , Christopher Drovandi

Sampling from the lattice Gaussian distribution is emerging as an important problem in coding and cryptography. In this paper, the classic Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is adapted for…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-10-23 Zheng Wang , Cong Ling

From basic considerations of the Lie group that preserves a target probability measure, we derive the Barker, Metropolis, and ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, as well as variants of waste-recycling Metropolis-Hastings…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-29 Steve Huntsman

We prove explicit, i.e., non-asymptotic, error bounds for Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, such as the Metropolis algorithm. The problem is to compute the expectation (or integral) of f with respect to a measure which can be given by a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2011-01-18 Daniel Rudolf

The posterior probability distribution for a set of model parameters encodes all that the data have to tell us in the context of a given model; it is the fundamental quantity for Bayesian parameter estimation. In order to infer the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-16 Rupert Allison , Joanna Dunkley

Metropolis nested sampling evolves a Markov chain from a current livepoint and accepts new points along the chain according to a version of the Metropolis acceptance ratio modified to satisfy the likelihood constraint, characteristic of…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-11 Kamran Javid

Traditional MCMC algorithms are computationally intensive and do not scale well to large data. In particular, the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm requires passing over the entire dataset to evaluate the likelihood ratio in each…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-29 Tung-Yu Wu , Y. X. Rachel Wang , Wing H. Wong

We consider deployment of the particle filter on modern massively parallel hardware architectures, such as Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), with a focus on the resampling stage. While standard multinomial and stratified resamplers require…

Computation · Statistics 2012-02-29 Lawrence Murray

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful tool for computation with complex probability distributions. However the performance of such methods is critically dependant on properly tuned parameters, most of which are difficult if…

Computation · Statistics 2021-10-27 James A. Brofos , Marylou Gabrié , Marcus A. Brubaker , Roy R. Lederman

Modern problems in astronomical Bayesian inference require efficient methods for sampling from complex, high-dimensional, often multi-modal probability distributions. Most popular methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, perform…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2016-03-16 Will Vousden , Will M. Farr , Ilya Mandel

This work is driven by the ubiquitous dissent over the abilities and contributions of the Metropolis-Hastings and reversible jump algorithm within the context of trans dimensional sampling. We demystify this topic by taking a deeper look…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-05 Tobias Siems , Lisa Koeppel

A simple and efficient adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, called the Metropolized Adaptive Subspace (MAdaSub) algorithm, is proposed for sampling from high-dimensional posterior model distributions in Bayesian variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-04 Christian Staerk , Maria Kateri , Ioannis Ntzoufras

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods sample from unnormalized probability distributions and offer guarantees of exact sampling. However, in the continuous case, unfavorable geometry of the target distribution can greatly limit the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-09 Zengyi Li , Yubei Chen , Friedrich T. Sommer