Related papers: Scalable Inference for Nonparametric Hawkes Proces…
Gaussian Process (GP) models are a class of flexible non-parametric models that have rich representational power. By using a Gaussian process with additive structure, complex responses can be modelled whilst retaining interpretability.…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian nonparametric models for function approximation with principled predictive uncertainty estimates. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multilayer generalizations of GPs that can represent complex marginal…
Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models…
We study the problem of non-parametric Bayesian estimation of the intensity function of a Poisson point process. The observations are $n$ independent realisations of a Poisson point process on the interval $[0,T]$. We propose two related…
The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…
This paper introduces the Neural Network for Nonlinear Hawkes processes (NNNH), a non-parametric method based on neural networks to fit nonlinear Hawkes processes. Our method is suitable for analyzing large datasets in which events exhibit…
Bayesian optimization (BO) has established itself as a leading strategy for efficiently optimizing expensive-to-evaluate functions. Existing BO methods mostly rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models and are not applicable to…
This paper presents an algorithm for the simulation of Hawkes-type processes where the intensity is expressed in terms of a continuous-time autoregressive moving average model. We identify upper bounds for both the univariate and the…
We put forward a new Bayesian modeling strategy for spatiotemporal count data that enables efficient posterior sampling. Most previous models for such data decompose logarithms of the response Poisson rates into fixed effects and spatial…
Hawkes process are very popular mathematical tools for modelling phenomena exhibiting a \textit{self-exciting} or \textit{self-correcting} behaviour. Typical examples are earthquakes occurrence, wild-fires, drought, capture-recapture, crime…
It is often assumed that events cannot occur simultaneously when modelling data with point processes. This raises a problem as real-world data often contains synchronous observations due to aggregation or rounding, resulting from…
We present a two-stage Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for sampling probabilistic models, whose log-likelihood is computationally expensive to evaluate, by using a surrogate Gaussian Process (GP) model. The key feature of the approach, and…
This work introduces the concept of parametric Gaussian processes (PGPs), which is built upon the seemingly self-contradictory idea of making Gaussian processes parametric. Parametric Gaussian processes, by construction, are designed to…
Gaussian process models are flexible, Bayesian non-parametric approaches to regression. Properties of multivariate Gaussians mean that they can be combined linearly in the manner of additive models and via a link function (like in…
Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are a class of point processes that can account for complex temporal dynamics among event sequences. In this work, we study the accuracy and computational efficiency of three classes of algorithms which,…
Gaussian graphical models have been used to study intrinsic dependence among several variables, but the Gaussianity assumption may be restrictive in many applications. A nonparanormal graphical model is a semiparametric generalization for…
Gaussian process regression in its most simplified form assumes normal homoscedastic noise and utilizes analytically tractable mean and covariance functions of predictive posterior distribution using Gaussian conditioning. Its…
Gaussian processes are powerful models for probabilistic machine learning, but are limited in application by their $O(N^3)$ inference complexity. We propose a method for deriving parametric families of kernel functions with compact spatial…
Hawkes Processes are a type of point process for modeling self-excitation, i.e., when the occurrence of an event makes future events more likely to occur. The corresponding self-triggering function of this type of process may be inferred…
In this paper we introduce a new model named CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes process as the Hawkes model with exponential kernel implies a strictly decreasing behaviour of the autocorrelation function and empirically evidences reject the monotonicity…