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Markov jump processes (or continuous-time Markov chains) are a simple and important class of continuous-time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of simulating from the posterior distribution over paths in these models,…

Computation · Statistics 2013-10-21 Vinayak Rao , Yee Whye Teh

In the paper we consider some piecewise deterministic Markov process whose continuous component evolves according to semiflows, which are switched at the jump times of a Poisson process. The associated Markov chain describes the states of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-06 Dawid Czapla , Sander C. Hille , Katarzyna Horbacz , Hanna Wojewódka-Ściążko

Systems with interacting degrees of freedom play a prominent role in stochastic thermodynamics. Our aim is to use the concept of detached path probabilities and detached entropy production for bipartite Markov processes and elaborate on a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-10-17 Jannik Ehrich , Andreas Engel

We discuss research done in two important areas of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics: fluctuation dissipation relations and dynamical fluctuations. In equilibrium systems the fluctuation-dissipation theorem gives a simple relation…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-11-19 Bram Wynants

In this paper, we study a subclass of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes with a Polish state space, involving deterministic motion punctuated by random jumps that occur at exponentially distributed time intervals. Over each of these…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-26 Dawid Czapla , Katarzyna Horbacz , Hanna Wojewódka-Ściążko

The reduction of a continuous Markov process with multiple metastable states to a discrete rate process is investigated in the presence of slow time dependent parameters such as periodic external forces or slowly fluctuating barrier…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Peter Talkner , Jerzy Luczka

The thermodynamic formalism, which was first developed for dynamical systems and then applied to discrete Markov processes, turns out to be well suited for continuous time Markov processes as well, provided the definitions are interpreted…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 Vivien Lecomte , Cecile Appert-Rolland , Frederic Van-Wijland

This article studies typical dynamics and fluctuations for a slow-fast dynamical system perturbed by a small fractional Brownian noise. Based on an ergodic theorem with explicit rates of convergence, which may be of independent interest, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-20 Solesne Bourguin , Siragan Gailus , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

The principal aim of the present work is to explore limit theorems for small random perturbations of a planar impulsive dynamical system, where impulses occur at hitting times of a suitable switching surface, and are thus state-dependent.…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-13 Ashif Khan , Chetan D. Pahlajani

This paper presents a nonparametric method for estimating the conditional density associated to the jump rate of a piecewise-deterministic Markov process. In our framework, the estimation needs only one observation of the process within a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-12 Romain Azaïs , François Dufour , Anne Gégout-Petit

Highly-diverse ecosystems exhibit a broad distribution of population sizes and species turnover, where species at high and low abundances are exchanged over time. We show that these two features generically emerge in the fluctuating phase…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-01-09 Thibaut Arnoulx de Pirey , Guy Bunin

We show that the scaled cumulant generating and large deviation function, associated to a two-state Markov process involving two processes, obey a symmetry relation reminiscent of the fluctuation theorem, independent from any conditions on…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-19 Tim Willaert , Bart Cleuren , Christian Van den Broeck

Fluctuations in small biological systems can be crucial for their function. Large-deviation theory characterizes such rare events from the perspective of stochastic processes. In most cases it is very difficult to directly determine the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-12-03 Artur Wachtel

Controlling dynamical fluctuations in open quantum systems is essential both for our comprehension of quantum nonequilibrium behaviour and for its possible application in near-term quantum technologies. However, understanding these…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-10-07 Federico Carollo , Carlos Pérez-Espigares

We consider a class of graph-valued stochastic processes in which each vertex has a type that fluctuates randomly over time. Collectively, the paths of the vertex types up to a given time determine the probabilities that the edges are…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-07 Peter Braunsteins , Frank den Hollander , Michel Mandjes

The fluctuation theorem for entropy production is a remarkable symmetry of the distribution of produced entropy that holds universally in non-equilibrium steady states with Markovian dynamics. However, in systems with slow degrees of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-02-21 Matthias Uhl , Patrick Pietzonka , Udo Seifert

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) have been used to formulate many decision-making problems in science and engineering. The objective is to synthesize the best decision (action selection) policies to maximize expected rewards (or minimize…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-07-07 Mahmoud El Chamie , Behcet Acikmese

In this paper, we develop a general law of large numbers and central limit theorem for cumulative reward processes associated with finite state Markov jump processes with non-stationary transition rates. Such models commonly arise in…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-15 Monte Fischer , Peter W. Glynn

Markov jump processes (MJPs) are used to model a wide range of phenomena from disease progression to RNA path folding. However, maximum likelihood estimation of parametric models leads to degenerate trajectories and inferential performance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-08 Jonathan H. Huggins , Karthik Narasimhan , Ardavan Saeedi , Vikash K. Mansinghka

In this paper, we consider a subclass of piecewise deterministic Markov processes with a Polish state space that involve a deterministic motion punctuated by random jumps, occurring in a Poisson-like fashion with some state-dependent rate,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Dawid Czapla