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We study the existence of densities for distributions of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. We also obtain relationships between invariant densities of the continuous time process and that of the process observed at jump times. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-03 Piotr Gwiżdż , Marta Tyran-Kamińska

We study the performance of a stochastic algorithm based on the power method that adaptively learns the large deviation functions characterizing the fluctuations of additive functionals of Markov processes, used in physics to model…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-30 Francesco Coghi , Hugo Touchette

In this paper, we study small noise asymptotics of Markov-modulated diffusion processes in the regime that the modulating Markov chain is rapidly switching. We prove the joint sample-path large deviations principle for the Markov-modulated…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-27 Gang Huang , Michel Mandjes , Peter Spreij

We present a systematic analysis of stochastic processes conditioned on an empirical measure $Q_T$ defined in a time interval $[0,T]$ for large $T$. We build our analysis starting from a discrete time Markov chain. Results for a continuous…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-06-26 Bernard Derrida , Tridib Sadhu

We investigate the Poisson regression method for Markov and semi-Markov jump processes from a nonparametric angle, allowing the lengths of the time and duration intervals in the partition to vary with the number of observations. Imposing no…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Martin Bladt , Rasmus Frigaard Lemvig

We propose moment-based variational inference as a flexible framework for approximate smoothing of latent Markov jump processes. The main ingredient of our approach is to partition the set of all transitions of the latent process into…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-15 Christian Wildner , Heinz Koeppl

We consider a system of $N$ identical independent Markov processes, each taking values 0 or 1. The system describes a stochastic dynamics of an ensemble of two-level atoms. The atoms are exposed to a photon flux. Under the photon flux…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-01 E. Pechersky , S. Pirogov , G. M. Schütz , A. Vladimirov , A. Yambartsev

Consider an N-dimensional Markov chain obtained from N one-dimensional random walks by Doob h-transform with the q-Vandermonde determinant. We prove that as N becomes large, these Markov chains converge to an infinite-dimensional Feller…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-03 Alexei Borodin , Vadim Gorin

Multi-agent systems can be successfully described by kinetic models, which allow one to explore the large scale aggregate trends resulting from elementary microscopic interactions. The latter may be formalised as collision-like rules, in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-11-06 Nadia Loy , Andrea Tosin

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 David Berghaus , Kostadin Cvejoski , Patrick Seifner , Cesar Ojeda , Ramses J. Sanchez

We consider discrete-time Markov chains and study large deviations of the pair empirical occupation measure, which is useful to compute fluctuations of pure-additive and jump-type observables. We provide an exact expression for the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-07-04 Giorgio Carugno , Pierpaolo Vivo , Francesco Coghi

The large deviation principle on phase space is proved for a class of Markov processes known as random population dynamics with catastrophes. In the paper we study the process which corresponds to the random population dynamics with linear…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-18 A. Logachov , O. Logachova , A. Yambartsev

For a network of discrete states with a periodically driven Markovian dynamics, we develop an inference scheme for an external observer who has access to some transitions. Based on waiting-time distributions between these transitions, the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-09-12 Alexander M. Maier , Julius Degünther , Jann van der Meer , Udo Seifert

Dunkl processes are multidimensional Markov processes defined through the use of Dunkl operators. These processes have discontinuities, and they can be separated into their continuous (radial) part, and their discontinuous (jump) part.…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2021-05-20 Sergio Andraus

Relative fluctuations of observables in discrete stochastic systems are bounded at all times by the mean dynamical activity in the system, quantified by the mean number of jumps. This constitutes a kinetic uncertainty relation that is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-01-08 Ivan Di Terlizzi , Marco Baiesi

We propose a method for approximating solutions to optimization problems involving the global stability properties of parameter-dependent continuous-time autonomous dynamical systems. The method relies on an approximation of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-08-12 Péter Koltai , Alexander Volf

The paper deals with a certain class of random evolutions. We develop a construction that yields an invariant measure for a continuous-time Markov process with random transitions. The approach is based on a particular way of constructing…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-20 Y. Belopolskaya , Y. Suhov

Doob fixed-time conditioning enables the sampling of rare trajectories of Markov processes by modifying the drift so that reaching a prescribed target at a given time is guaranteed. We study the statistics of this conditioned path ensemble…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-05-26 Iago N. Mamede , Francesco Coghi

We consider the context of molecular motors modelled by a diffusion process driven by the gradient of a weakly periodic potential that depends on an internal degree of freedom. The switch of the internal state, that can freely be…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-02 Serena Della Corte , Richard C. Kraaij

This paper introduces a novel methodology for the identification of switching dynamics for switched autoregressive linear models. Switching behavior is assumed to follow a Markov model. The system's outputs are contaminated by possibly…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-03-28 Sarah Hojjatinia , Constantino M. Lagoa