Related papers: Equivalent CM Models
In this work we introduce a new and richer class of finite order Markov chain models and address the following model selection problem: find the Markov model with the minimal set of parameters (minimal Markov model) which is necessary to…
Consider longitudinal networks whose edges turn on and off according to a discrete-time Markov chain with exponential-family transition probabilities. We characterize when their joint distributions are also exponential families with the…
Model Multiplicity (MM) arises when multiple, equally performing machine learning models can be trained to solve the same prediction task. Recent studies show that models obtained under MM may produce inconsistent predictions for the same…
The goal of Continual Learning (CL) is to continuously learn from new data streams and accomplish the corresponding tasks. Previously studied CL assumes that data are given in sequence nose-to-tail for different tasks, thus indeed belonging…
In observational studies, when a total causal effect of interest is not identified, the set of all possible effects can be reported instead. This typically occurs when the underlying causal DAG is only known up to a Markov equivalence…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a methodology for sampling approximately from a sequence of probability distributions of increasing dimension and estimating their normalizing constants. We propose here an alternative methodology named…
For non-equilibrium systems described by finite Markov processes, we consider the number of times that a system traverses a cyclic sequence of states (a cycle). The joint distribution of the number of forward and backward instances of any…
Conditional particle filters (CPFs) with backward/ancestor sampling are powerful methods for sampling from the posterior distribution of the latent states of a dynamic model such as a hidden Markov model. However, the performance of these…
Markov combination is an operation that takes two statistical models and produces a third whose marginal distributions include those of the original models. Building upon and extending existing work in the Gaussian case, we develop Markov…
Reciprocal transformations mix the role of the dependent and independent variables to achieve simpler versions or even linearized versions of nonlinear PDEs. These transformations help in the identification of a plethora of PDEs available…
A continuous-time Markov chain rate change formula for simulation, model selection, filtering and theory is proven. It is used to develop Markov chain importance sampling, rejection sampling, branching particle filtering algorithms and…
More than ever, today we are left with the abundance of molecular data outpaced by the advancements of the phylogenomic methods. Especially in the case of presence of many genes over a set of species under the phylogeny question, more…
Approximate Bayesian Computation is widely used to infer the parameters of discrete-state continuous-time Markov networks. In this work, we focus on models that are governed by the Chemical Master Equation (the CME). Whilst originally…
We consider the use of language models whose size and accuracy are intermediate between different order n-gram models. Two types of models are studied in particular. Aggregate Markov models are class-based bigram models in which the mapping…
We consider continuous-time Markov chains on integers which allow transitions to adjacent states only, with alternating rates. We give explicit formulas for probability generating functions, and also for means, variances and state…
A probabilistic model describes a system in its observational state. In many situations, however, we are interested in the system's response under interventions. The class of structural causal models provides a language that allows us to…
Stochastic processes generated by non-stationary distributions are difficult to represent with conventional models such as Gaussian processes. This work presents Recurrent Autoregressive Flows as a method toward general stochastic process…
Two directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are called Markov equivalent if and only if they have the same underlying undirected graph (i.e. skeleton) and the same set of immoralities. Using observational data, a DAG model can only be determined up…
We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…
Replicating chaotic characteristics of non-linear dynamics by machine learning (ML) has recently drawn wide attentions. In this work, we propose that a ML model, trained to predict the state one-step-ahead from several latest historic…