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We extend the theory of d-separation to cases in which data instances are not independent and identically distributed. We show that applying the rules of d-separation directly to the structure of probabilistic models of relational data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-01-07 Marc Maier , Katerina Marazopoulou , David Jensen

In Bayesian hypothesis testing, evidence for a statistical model is quantified by the Bayes factor, which represents the relative likelihood of observed data under that model compared to another competing model. In general, computing Bayes…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-07 Thomas J. Faulkenberry

This paper proposes a determined blind source separation method using Bayesian non-parametric modelling of sources. Conventionally source signals are separated from a given set of mixture signals by modelling them using non-negative matrix…

Sound · Computer Science 2019-04-09 Chaitanya Narisetty , Tatsuya Komatsu , Reishi Kondo

Gaussian graphical models provide a powerful framework to reveal the conditional dependency structure between multivariate variables. The process of uncovering the conditional dependency network is known as structure learning. Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-30 Lucas Vogels , Reza Mohammadi , Marit Schoonhoven , S. Ilker Birbil

It has historically been a challenge to perform Bayesian inference in a design-based survey context. The present paper develops a Bayesian model for sampling inference in the presence of inverse-probability weights. We use a hierarchical…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-24 Yajuan Si , Natesh S. Pillai , Andrew Gelman

Given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval, we study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the volatility…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-01 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

A density estimation method in a Bayesian nonparametric framework is presented when recorded data are not coming directly from the distribution of interest, but from a length biased version. From a Bayesian perspective, efforts to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-23 Spyridon J. Hatjispyros , Theodoros Nicoleris , Stephen G. Walker

Forecasting techniques for assessing the power of future experiments to discriminate between theories or discover new laws of nature are of great interest in many areas of science. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian forecasting method…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-09-24 Mohammad Hossein Namjoo

We study the problems of sequential nonparametric two-sample and independence testing. Sequential tests process data online and allow using observed data to decide whether to stop and reject the null hypothesis or to collect more data,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-21 Aleksandr Podkopaev , Aaditya Ramdas

Independence screening is a powerful method for variable selection for `Big Data' when the number of variables is massive. Commonly used independence screening methods are based on marginal correlations or variations of it. In many…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-02 Emre Barut , Jianqing Fan , Anneleen Verhasselt

Causal discovery is crucial for understanding complex systems and informing decisions. While observational data can uncover causal relationships under certain assumptions, it often falls short, making active interventions necessary. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Yuxuan Wang , Mingzhou Liu , Xinwei Sun , Wei Wang , Yizhou Wang

The Bayesian evidence is a key tool in model selection, allowing a comparison of models with different numbers of parameters. Its use in analysis of cosmological models has been limited by difficulties in calculating it, with current…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-02-01 Juan Garcia-Bellido

This paper presents a hypothesis testing method given independent samples from a number of connected populations. The method is motivated by a forestry project for monitoring change in the strength of lumber. Traditional practice has been…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-15 Song Cai , Jiahua Chen , James V. Zidek

Substantial advances in Bayesian methods for causal inference have been developed in recent years. We provide an introduction to Bayesian inference for causal effects for practicing statisticians who have some familiarity with Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-12 Arman Oganisian , Jason A. Roy

Motivated by applications in biological science, we propose a novel test to assess the conditional mean dependence of a response variable on a large number of covariates. Our procedure is built on the martingale difference divergence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-31 Xianyang Zhang , Shun Yao , Xiaofeng Shao

The Y-test is a useful tool for detecting missing confounders in the context of a multivariate regression.However, it is rarely used in practice since it requires identifying multiple conditionally independent instruments, which is often…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-22 Jaime Sevilla , Alexandra Mayn

Detecting conditional independencies plays a key role in several statistical and machine learning tasks, especially in causal discovery algorithms. In this study, we introduce LCIT (Latent representation based Conditional Independence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-07 Bao Duong , Thin Nguyen

A method of calculating probability values from a system of marginal constraints is presented. Previous systems for finding the probability of a single attribute have either made an independence assumption concerning the evidence or have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 J. W. Miller , R. M. Goodman

A new class of dependent random measures which we call {\it compound random measures} are proposed and the use of normalized versions of these random measures as priors in Bayesian nonparametric mixture models is considered. Their…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-03 Jim E. Griffin , Fabrizio Leisen

We consider testing marginal independence versus conditional independence in a trivariate Gaussian setting. The two models are non-nested and their intersection is a union of two marginal independences. We consider two sequences of such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-23 F. Richard Guo , Thomas S. Richardson