Related papers: A Metamodel of the Telemac Errors

"Back-of-the-envelope" or "rule-of-thumb" calculations involving rough estimates of quantities play a central scientific role in developing intuition about the structure and behaviour of physical systems, for example in so-called `Fermi…

Counterfactual explanations indicate the smallest change in input that can translate to a different outcome for a machine learning model. Counterfactuals have generated immense interest in high-stakes applications such as finance,…

Mislabeled data is a pervasive issue that undermines the performance of machine learning systems in real-world applications. An effective approach to mitigate this problem is to detect mislabeled instances and subject them to special…

Predicting chaotic dynamical systems is critical in many scientific fields, such as weather forecasting, but challenging due to the characteristic sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Traditional modeling approaches require extensive…

In robotics, simulation has the potential to reduce design time and costs, and lead to a more robust engineered solution and a safer development process. However, the use of simulators is predicated on the availability of good models. This…

In many machine learning applications, it is important for the model to provide confidence scores that accurately capture its prediction uncertainty. Although modern learning methods have achieved great success in predictive accuracy,…

Improving the accuracy of forecast models for physical systems such as the atmosphere is a crucial ongoing effort. Errors in state estimation for these often highly nonlinear systems has been the primary focus of recent research, but as…

Well-calibrated model confidence scores can improve the usefulness of text generation models. For example, users can be prompted to review predictions with low confidence scores, to prevent models from returning bad or potentially dangerous…

Real-world data is often incomplete and contains missing values. To train accurate models over real-world datasets, users need to spend a substantial amount of time and resources imputing and finding proper values for missing data items. In…

Developing and fielding complex systems requires proof that they are reliably correct with respect to their design and operating requirements. Especially for autonomous systems which exhibit unanticipated emergent behavior, fully…

Calibration is a frequently invoked concept when useful label probability estimates are required on top of classification accuracy. A calibrated model is a function whose values correctly reflect underlying label probabilities. Calibration…

Precise control in modern robotic applications is always an open issue due to unknown time-varying disturbances. Existing meta-learning-based approaches require a shared representation of environmental structures, which lack flexibility for…

Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the…

Real-time, guaranteed safe trajectory planning is vital for navigation in unknown environments. However, real-time navigation algorithms typically sacrifice robustness for computation speed. Alternatively, provably safe trajectory planning…

This work is concerned with the estimation of multidimensional regression and the asymptotic behaviour of the test involved in selecting models. The main problem with such models is that we need to know the covariance matrix of the noise to…

The proliferation of Deep Neural Networks has resulted in machine learning systems becoming increasingly more present in various real-world applications. Consequently, there is a growing demand for highly reliable models in many domains,…

Optimization software enables the solution of problems with millions of variables and associated parameters. These parameters are, however, often uncertain and represented with an analytical description of the parameter's distribution or…

The process of calibrating computer models of natural phenomena is essential for applications in the physical sciences, where plenty of domain knowledge can be embedded into simulations and then calibrated against real observations. Current…

The consideration of predictive uncertainty in medical imaging with deep learning is of utmost importance. We apply estimation of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty by variational Bayesian inference with Monte Carlo dropout to…

The availability of precise and accurate simulation is a limiting factor for interpreting and forecasting data in many fields of science and engineering. Often, one or more distinct simulation software applications are developed, each with…