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We present Link Density (LD) computed from the Recurrence Network (RN) of a time series data as an effective measure that can detect dynamical transitions in a system. We illustrate its use using time series from the standard Rossler system…

Score-based modeling through stochastic differential equations (SDEs) has provided a new perspective on diffusion models, and demonstrated superior performance on continuous data. However, the gradient of the log-likelihood function, i.e.,…

For one-dimensional Jump-Drift and Jump-Diffusion processes converging towards some steady state, the large deviations of a long dynamical trajectory are described from two perspectives. Firstly, the joint probability of the empirical…

We evaluate the significance of a recently proposed bivariate jump-diffusion model for a data-driven characterization of interactions between complex dynamical systems. For various coupled and non-coupled jump-diffusion processes, we find…

Detecting abrupt changes in the mean of a time series, so-called changepoints, is important for many applications. However, many procedures rely on the estimation of nuisance parameters (like long-run variance). Under the alternative (a…

The paper demonstrates that a pure-diffusion 3/2 model is able to capture the observed upward-sloping implied volatility skew in VIX options. This observation contradicts a common perception in the literature that jumps are required for the…

In Change point detection task Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT) is sequentially applied in a sliding window procedure. Its high values indicate changes of parametric distribution in the data sequence. Correspondingly LRT values require…

This paper concerns a local volatility model in which volatility takes two possible values, and the specific value depends on whether the underlying price is above or below a given threshold value. The model is known, and a number of…

A new jump diffusion regime-switching model is introduced, which allows for linking jumps in asset prices with regime changes. We prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the risk-sensitive asset management criterion…

In the classical model of stock prices which is assumed to be Geometric Brownian motion, the drift and the volatility of the prices are held constant. However, in reality, the volatility does vary. In quantitative finance, the Heston model…

We consider the problem of sequential (online) estimation of a single change point in a piecewise linear regression model under a Gaussian setup. We demonstrate that certain CUSUM-type statistics attain the minimax optimal rates for…

We consider a threshold factor model for high-dimensional time series in which the dynamics of the time series is assumed to switch between different regimes according to the value of a threshold variable. This is an extension of threshold…

Despite achieving excellent performance on benchmarks, deep neural networks often underperform in real-world deployment due to sensitivity to minor, often imperceptible shifts in input data, known as distributional shifts. These shifts are…

The paper proposes a class of financial market models which are based on inhomogeneous telegraph processes and jump diffusions with alternating volatilities. It is assumed that the jumps occur when the tendencies and volatilities are…

We propose methods to infer jumps of a semi-martingale, which describes long-term price dynamics, based on discrete, noisy, high-frequency observations. Different to the classical model of additive, centered market microstructure noise, we…

The nonparametric estimation of the volatility and the drift coefficient of a scalar diffusion is studied when the process is observed at random time points. The constructed estimator generalizes the spectral method by Gobet, Hoffmann and…

A method for change point detection is proposed. We consider a univariate sequence of independent random variables with piecewise constant expectation and variance, apart from which the distribution may vary periodically. We aim to detect…

We consider option pricing using a discrete-time Markov switching stochastic volatility with co-jump model, which can model volatility clustering and varying mean-reversion speeds of volatility. For pricing European options, we develop a…

This paper concerns about the limiting distributions of change point estimators, in a high-dimensional linear regression time series context, where a regression object $(y_t, X_t) \in \mathbb{R} \times \mathbb{R}^p$ is observed at every…

Since its introduction, some sixty years ago, the Montroll-Weiss continuous time random walk has found numerous applications due its ease of use and ability to describe both regular and anomalous diffusion. Yet, despite its broad…