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This article proposes a Bayesian nonparametric method for forecasting, imputation, and clustering in sparsely observed, multivariate time series data. The method is appropriate for jointly modeling hundreds of time series with widely…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-27 Feras A. Saad , Vikash K. Mansinghka

We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…

Applications · Statistics 2016-07-28 Marta Tallarita , Maria De Iorio , Alessandra Guglielmi , James Malone-Lee

This paper presents a novel algorithm, based upon the dependent Dirichlet process mixture model (DDPMM), for clustering batch-sequential data containing an unknown number of evolving clusters. The algorithm is derived via a low-variance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-11-04 Trevor Campbell , Miao Liu , Brian Kulis , Jonathan P. How , Lawrence Carin

Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a natural framework to effectively integrate data and borrow information across groups. In this paper, we address problems related to density estimation and identifying clusters across related groups, by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Huizi Zhang , Sara Wade , Natalia Bochkina

One of the focal points of the modern literature on Bayesian nonparametrics has been the problem of clustering, or partitioning, where each data point is modeled as being associated with one and only one of some collection of groups called…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-02 Tamara Broderick , Michael I. Jordan , Jim Pitman

In the field of population health research, understanding the similarities between geographical areas and quantifying their shared effects on health outcomes is crucial. In this paper, we synthesise a number of existing methods to create a…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-27 Wala Draidi Areed , Aiden Price , Helen Thompson , Reid Malseed , Kerrie Mengersen

Mixture models are widely used in modeling heterogeneous data populations. A standard approach of mixture modeling assumes that the mixture component takes a parametric kernel form. In many applications, making parametric assumptions on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-06 Yilei Zhang , Yun Wei , Aritra Guha , XuanLong Nguyen

Bayesian clustering methods have the widely touted advantage of providing a probabilistic characterization of uncertainty in clustering through the posterior distribution. An amazing variety of priors and likelihoods have been proposed for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Garritt L. Page , Andrés F. Barrientos , David B. Dahl , David B. Dunson

In this paper, we consider the task of clustering a set of individual time series while modeling each cluster, that is, model-based time series clustering. The task requires a parametric model with sufficient flexibility to describe the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-23 Ryohei Umatani , Takashi Imai , Kaoru Kawamoto , Shutaro Kunimasa

We propose a novel nonparametric Bayesian approach for meta-analysis with event time outcomes. The model is an extension of linear dependent tail-free processes. The extension includes a modification to facilitate (conditionally) conjugate…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-25 Bernardo Flores , Peter Mueller

We propose a Bayesian approach for model-based clustering of multivariate categorical data where variables are allowed to be associated within clusters and the number of clusters is unknown. The approach uses a two-layer mixture of finite…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-09 Gertraud Malsiner-Walli , Bettina Grün , Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter

The use of a finite mixture of normal distributions in model-based clustering allows to capture non-Gaussian data clusters. However, identifying the clusters from the normal components is challenging and in general either achieved by…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-21 Gertraud Malsiner-Walli , Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter , Bettina Grün

When incorporating historical control data into the analysis of current randomized controlled trial data, it is critical to account for differences between the datasets. When the cause of the difference is an unmeasured factor and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-10 Tomohiro Ohigashi , Kazushi Maruo , Takashi Sozu , Masahiko Gosho

Clustering is widely studied in statistics and machine learning, with applications in a variety of fields. As opposed to classical algorithms which return a single clustering solution, Bayesian nonparametric models provide a posterior over…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-11 Sara Wade , Zoubin Ghahramani

In this paper we propose a new methodology for solving a discrete time stochastic Markovian control problem under model uncertainty. By utilizing the Dirichlet process, we model the unknown distribution of the underlying stochastic process…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-29 Tao Chen , Jiyoun Myung

Clustering multivariate data is a pervasive task in many applied problems, particularly in social studies and life science. Model-based approaches to clustering rely on mixture models, where each mixture component corresponds to the kernel…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-22 Laura Ferrini , Federico Castelletti

Clustering multivariate binary data is of interest in many scientific fields, including ecology, biomedicine, and social policy. Beyond heuristic clustering algorithms, such data can be modelled using multivariate Bernoulli mixture models.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Luisa Ferrari , Maria Franco Villoria , Garritt L. Page , Alex Laini

We discuss a Bayesian hierarchical copula model for clusters of financial time series. A similar approach has been developed in recent paper. However, the prior distributions proposed there do not always provide a proper posterior. In order…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-07 Paolo Onorati , Brunero Liseo

Robust tracking of a target in a clutter environment is an important and challenging task. In recent years, the nearest neighbor methods and probabilistic data association filters were proposed. However, the performance of these methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-18 Bahman Moraffah , Christ Richmond , Raha Moraffah , Antonia Papandreou-Suppappola

This note outlines a method for clustering time series based on a statistical model in which volatility shifts at unobserved change-points. The model accommodates some classical stylized features of returns and its relation to GARCH is…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-26 Nick Whiteley