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Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) provides methods for Bayesian inference in simulation-based stochastic models which do not permit tractable likelihoods. We present a new ABC method which uses probabilistic neural emulator networks to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-21 Jan-Matthis Lueckmann , Giacomo Bassetto , Theofanis Karaletsos , Jakob H. Macke

Bayesian networks (BNs) are a probabilistic graphical model widely used for representing expert knowledge and reasoning under uncertainty. Traditionally, they are based on directed acyclic graphs that capture dependencies between random…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-01-23 Christel Baier , Clemens Dubslaff , Holger Hermanns , Nikolai Käfer

In this paper, the relationship between probabilistic graphical models, in particular Bayesian networks, and causal diagrams, also called structural causal models, is studied. Structural causal models are deterministic models, based on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Peter J. F. Lucas , Eleonora Zullo , Fabio Stella

We present a growing dimension asymptotic formalism. The perspective in this paper is classification theory and we show that it can accommodate probabilistic networks classifiers, including naive Bayes model and its augmented version. When…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Tatjana Pavlenko , Dietrich von Rosen

Separable Bayesian Networks, or the Influence Model, are dynamic Bayesian Networks in which the conditional probability distribution can be separated into a function of only the marginal distribution of a node's neighbors, instead of the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Chalee Asavathiratham

Bayesian inference on structured models typically relies on the ability to infer posterior distributions of underlying hidden variables. However, inference in implicit models or complex posterior distributions is hard. A popular tool for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-16 Theofanis Karaletsos

We provide a classification of graphical models according to their representation as subfamilies of exponential families. Undirected graphical models with no hidden variables are linear exponential families (LEFs), directed acyclic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-01 Dan Geiger , Christopher Meek

Pair-copula Bayesian networks (PCBNs) are a novel class of multivariate statistical models, which combine the distributional flexibility of pair-copula constructions (PCCs) with the parsimony of conditional independence models associated…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-27 Alexander Bauer , Claudia Czado

In this paper, we derive a Bayesian model order selection rule by using the exponentially embedded family method, termed Bayesian EEF. Unlike many other Bayesian model selection methods, the Bayesian EEF can use vague proper priors and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-24 Zhenghan Zhu , Steven Kay

We introduce implicit Bayesian neural networks, a simple and scalable approach for uncertainty representation in deep learning. Standard Bayesian approach to deep learning requires the impractical inference of the posterior distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Trung Trinh , Samuel Kaski , Markus Heinonen

We propose a novel method for closed-form predictive distribution modeling with neural nets. In quantifying prediction uncertainty, we build on Evidential Deep Learning, which has been impactful as being both simple to implement and giving…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-22 Manuel Haussmann , Sebastian Gerwinn , Melih Kandemir

This paper introduces a new type of probabilistic semiparametric model that takes advantage of data binning to reduce the computational cost of kernel density estimation in nonparametric distributions. Two new conditional probability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Rafael Sojo , Javier Díaz-Rozo , Concha Bielza , Pedro Larrañaga

We propose introspective convolutional networks (ICN) that emphasize the importance of having convolutional neural networks empowered with generative capabilities. We employ a reclassification-by-synthesis algorithm to perform training…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-01-08 Long Jin , Justin Lazarow , Zhuowen Tu

We focus on credal nets, which are graphical models that generalise Bayesian nets to imprecise probability. We replace the notion of strong independence commonly used in credal nets with the weaker notion of epistemic irrelevance, which is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2010-08-17 Gert de Cooman , Filip Hermans , Alessandro Antonucci , Marco Zaffalon

Whereas acausal Bayesian networks represent probabilistic independence, causal Bayesian networks represent causal relationships. In this paper, we examine Bayesian methods for learning both types of networks. Bayesian methods for learning…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-19 David Heckerman

We use the implicitization procedure to generate polynomial equality constraints on the set of distributions induced by local interventions on variables governed by a causal Bayesian network with hidden variables. We show how we may reduce…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-26 Changsung Kang , Jin Tian

In this paper, we provide new complexity results for algorithms that learn discrete-variable Bayesian networks from data. Our results apply whenever the learning algorithm uses a scoring criterion that favors the simplest model able to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-12-12 David Maxwell Chickering , Christopher Meek , David Heckerman

Bayesian methods - either based on Bayes Factors or BIC - are now widely used for model selection. One property that might reasonably be demanded of any model selection method is that if a model ${M}_{1}$ is preferred to a model ${M}_{0}$,…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-08-20 Piotr Zwiernik , Jim Q. Smith

In the quest to improve efficiency, interdependence and complexity are becoming defining characteristics of modern complex networks representing engineered and natural systems. Graph theory is a widely used framework for modeling such…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-05-31 Sai Munikoti , Laya Das , Balasubramaniam Natarajan

Deep feedforward neural networks (DFNNs) are a powerful tool for functional approximation. We describe flexible versions of generalized linear and generalized linear mixed models incorporating basis functions formed by a DFNN. The…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-28 Minh-Ngoc Tran , Nghia Nguyen , David Nott , Robert Kohn