Related papers: Safe-Bayesian Generalized Linear Regression
In applications of Bayesian procedures, once a class of priors has been chosen, it may be tempting to fix the prior's hyperparameters from the data, in an empirical Bayes (EB) fashion, usually by their maximum marginal likelihood estimates…
Generalised linear models for multi-class classification problems are one of the fundamental building blocks of modern machine learning tasks. In this manuscript, we characterise the learning of a mixture of $K$ Gaussians with generic means…
Statistical models typically capture uncertainties in our knowledge of the corresponding real-world processes, however, it is less common for this uncertainty specification to capture uncertainty surrounding the values of the inputs to the…
This study proposes the General Bayes framework for policy learning. We consider decision problems in which a decision-maker chooses an action from an action set to maximize its expected welfare. Typical examples include treatment choice…
As an automatic method of determining model complexity using the training data alone, Bayesian linear regression provides us a principled way to select hyperparameters. But one often needs approximation inference if distribution assumption…
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters and utilize posterior samples for Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in prediction. However, despite the crucial role of flatness in the loss landscape in…
Change-plane regression identifies subpopulations through an interpretable linear threshold rule, but likelihood-based inference for the hard-threshold boundary is nonregular: objectives are non-smooth, the boundary is weakly identified…
Multilevel models (MLMs) are a central building block of the Bayesian workflow. They enable joint, interpretable modeling of data across hierarchical levels and provide a fully probabilistic quantification of uncertainty. Despite their…
Datasets are rarely a realistic approximation of the target population. Say, prevalence is misrepresented, image quality is above clinical standards, etc. This mismatch is known as sampling bias. Sampling biases are a major hindrance for…
This paper builds on recent research that focuses on regression modeling of continuous bounded data, such as proportions measured on a continuous scale. Specifically, it deals with beta regression models with mixed effects from a Bayesian…
We consider two questions at the heart of machine learning; how can we predict if a minimum will generalize to the test set, and why does stochastic gradient descent find minima that generalize well? Our work responds to Zhang et al.…
This study investigates Bayesian ensemble learning for improving the quality of decision-making. We consider a decision-maker who selects an action from a set of candidates based on a policy trained using observations. In our setting, we…
We study prediction and estimation problems using empirical risk minimization, relative to a general convex loss function. We obtain sharp error rates even when concentration is false or is very restricted, for example, in heavy-tailed…
Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been…
The Bayesian Lasso is constructed in the linear regression framework and applies the Gibbs sampling to estimate the regression parameters. This paper develops a new sparse learning model, named the Bayesian Lasso Sparse (BLS) model, that…
Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…
Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate strong few-shot generalization through in-context learning, yet their reasoning in dynamic and stochastic environments remains opaque. Prior studies mainly focus on static tasks and overlook the…
We consider the problem of Bayesian regression with trustworthy uncertainty quantification. We define that the uncertainty quantification is trustworthy if the ground truth can be captured by intervals dependent on the predictive…
This paper considers estimation of the predictive density for a normal linear model with unknown variance under alpha-divergence loss for -1 <= alpha <= 1. We first give a general canonical form for the problem, and then give general…
This paper introduces a class of generalised linear models (GLMs) driven by latent processes for modelling count, real-valued, binary, and positive continuous time series. Extending earlier latent-process regression frameworks based on…