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A new forecasting method based on the concept of the profile predictive the likelihood function is proposed for discrete-valued processes. In particular, generalized autoregressive and moving average (GARMA) models for Poisson distributed…
This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…
This work studies lung tumor growth prediction from sparse and irregular longitudinal computed tomography (CT) observations with measurement variability. A Bayesian physics-informed neural network is developed by combining Gompertz growth…
Clinical trials often involve the assessment of multiple endpoints to comprehensively evaluate the efficacy and safety of interventions. In the work, we consider a global nonparametric testing procedure based on multivariate rank for the…
In this work we introduce a unit averaging procedure to efficiently recover unit-specific parameters in a heterogeneous panel model. The procedure consists in estimating the parameter of a given unit using a weighted average of all the…
This article introduces a novel dynamic framework to Bayesian model averaging for time-varying parameter quantile regressions. By employing sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo, we combine empirical estimates derived from dynamically chosen…
Many pre-trained models (PTMs) are available in modern applications. Because different PTMs are often trained on different datasets, their performances can vary substantially for different new tasks, and the ranking of the candidates may…
Frailty models are often the model of choice for heterogeneous survival data. A frailty model contains both random effects and fixed effects, with the random effects accommodating for the correlation in the data. Different estimation…
Aims: Combinations of treatments can offer additional benefit over the treatments individually. However, trials of these combinations are lower priority than the development of novel therapies, which can restrict funding, timelines and…
Adaptive approaches, allowing for more flexible trial design, have been proposed for individually randomized trials to save time or reduce sample size. However, adaptive designs for cluster-randomized trials in which groups of participants…
Heterogeneity is a dominant factor in the behaviour of many biological processes. Despite this, it is common for mathematical and statistical analyses to ignore biological heterogeneity as a source of variability in experimental data.…
The analysis of panel count data has garnered considerable attention in the literature, leading to the development of multiple statistical techniques. In inferential analysis, most works focus on leveraging estimating equation-based…
In contingency table analysis, one is interested in testing whether a model of interest (e.g., the independent or symmetry model) holds using goodness-of-fit tests. When the null hypothesis where the model is true is rejected, the interest…
Missing data are often dealt with multiple imputation. A crucial part of the multiple imputation process is selecting sensible models to generate plausible values for incomplete data. A method based on posterior predictive checking is…
Survival prediction aims to evaluate the risk level of cancer patients. Existing methods primarily rely on pathology and genomics data, either individually or in combination. From the perspective of cancer pathogenesis, epigenetic changes,…
Site occupancy models are routinely used to estimate the probability of species presence from either abundance or presence-absence data collected across sites with repeated sampling occasions. In the last two decades, a broad class of…
This article describes a multivariate polynomial regression method where the uncertainty of the input parameters are approximated with Gaussian distributions, derived from the central limit theorem for large weighted sums, directly from the…
Covariate adjustment is an approach to improve the precision of trial analyses by adjusting for baseline variables that are prognostic of the primary endpoint. Motivated by the SEARCH Universal HIV Test-and-Treat Trial (2013-2017), we tell…
Modelling a complex system is almost invariably a challenging task. The incorporation of experimental observations can be used to improve the quality of a model, and thus to obtain better predictions about the behavior of the corresponding…
Persistence diagrams offer a way to summarize topological and geometric properties latent in datasets. While several methods have been developed that utilize persistence diagrams in statistical inference, a full Bayesian treatment remains…