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Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Murat Sensoy , Lance Kaplan , Federico Cerutti , Maryam Saleki

R\'enyi divergences play a pivotal role in information theory, statistics, and machine learning. While several estimators of these divergences have been proposed in the literature with their consistency properties established and minimax…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-09-12 Sreejith Sreekumar , Kengo Kato

Techniques for understanding the functioning of complex machine learning models are becoming increasingly popular, not only to improve the validation process, but also to extract new insights about the data via exploratory analysis. Though…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-02 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Irene Kim , Rushil Anirudh , Peer-Timo Bremer

With the advance of efficient analytical methods for sensitivity analysis ofprobabilistic networks, the interest in the sensitivities revealed by real-life networks is rekindled. As the amount of data resulting from a sensitivity analysis…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Linda C. van der Gaag , Silja Renooij

Attention mechanism is effective in both focusing the deep learning models on relevant features and interpreting them. However, attentions may be unreliable since the networks that generate them are often trained in a weakly-supervised…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-11 Jay Heo , Hae Beom Lee , Saehoon Kim , Juho Lee , Kwang Joon Kim , Eunho Yang , Sung Ju Hwang

Weighting methods are popular tools for estimating causal effects; assessing their robustness under unobserved confounding is important in practice. In the following paper, we introduce a new set of sensitivity models called "variance-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-14 Melody Huang , Samuel D. Pimentel

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz

Sensitivity Analysis is a framework to assess how conclusions drawn from missing outcome data may be vulnerable to departures from untestable underlying assumptions. We extend the E-value, a popular metric for quantifying robustness of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 Wu Xue , Abbas Zaidi

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-08 Patrick L. McDermott , Christopher K. Wikle

When eliciting probability models from experts, knowledge engineers may compare the results of the model with expert judgment on test scenarios, then adjust model parameters to bring the behavior of the model more in line with the expert's…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-08 Kathryn Blackmond Laskey

The accuracy of probability distributions inferred using machine-learning algorithms heavily depends on data availability and quality. In practical applications it is therefore fundamental to investigate the robustness of a statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-01 Christiane Goergen , Manuele Leonelli

We propose a cautious Bayesian variable selection routine by investigating the sensitivity of a hierarchical model, where the regression coefficients are specified by spike and slab priors. We exploit the use of latent variables to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes , Jochen Einbeck

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

The R\'enyi entropy is a generalization of the Shannon entropy and is widely used in mathematical statistics and applied sciences for quantifying the uncertainty in a probability distribution. We consider estimation of the quadratic R\'enyi…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-03-08 David Källberg , Nikolaj Leonenko , Oleg Seleznjev

Instrumental variables regression is a tool that is commonly used in the analysis of observational data. The instrumental variables are used to make causal inference about the effect of a certain exposure in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-07 Valentin Vancak , Arvid Sjölander

Sensitivity analysis is widely used to assess the robustness of causal conclusions in observational studies, yet its interaction with the structure of measured covariates is often overlooked. When latent confounders cannot be directly…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-17 Abhinandan Dalal , Iris Horng , Yang Feng , Dylan S. Small

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of machine learning models, providing important insights into the reliability of predictions and aiding the decision-making process in real-world applications. This paper proposes a novel way…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-02 Yusuf Sale , Paul Hofman , Lisa Wimmer , Eyke Hüllermeier , Thomas Nagler

Sensitivity analysis (SA) has much to offer for a very large class of applications, such as model selection, calibration, optimization, quality assurance and many others. Sensitivity analysis offers crucial contextual information regarding…

The present work provides an application of Global Sensitivity Analysis to supervised machine learning methods such as Random Forests. These methods act as black boxes, selecting features in high--dimensional data sets as to provide…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-22 Giulia Vannucci , Roberta Siciliano , Andrea Saltelli

Outlying observations are frequently encountered across a wide spectrum of scientific domains, posing notable challenges to the generalizability of statistical models and the reproducibility of downstream analysis. They are identified…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Dongliang Zhang , Masoud Asgharian , Martin A. Lindquist