Related papers: Forecast Evaluation of Quantiles, Prediction Inter…

Although a recent shift has been made in the field of predictive process monitoring to use models from the explainable artificial intelligence field, the evaluation still occurs mainly through performance-based metrics, thus not accounting…

We consider the challenge of preference elicitation in systems that help users discover the most desirable item(s) within a given database. Past work on preference elicitation focused on structured models that provide a factored…

Time series forecasting models often lack interpretability, limiting their adoption in domains requiring explainable predictions. We propose \textsc{FreqLens}, an interpretable forecasting framework that discovers and attributes predictions…

Scoring rules evaluate probabilistic forecasts of an unknown state against the realized state and are a fundamental building block in the incentivized elicitation of information. This paper develops mechanisms for scoring elicited text…

When quantitative models are used to support decision-making on complex and important topics, understanding a model's ``reasoning'' can increase trust in its predictions, expose hidden biases, or reduce vulnerability to adversarial attacks.…

In a variety of applications, including nonparametric instrumental variable (NPIV) analysis, proximal causal inference under unmeasured confounding, and missing-not-at-random data with shadow variables, we are interested in inference on a…

In most classification tasks there are observations that are ambiguous and therefore difficult to correctly label. Set-valued classifiers output sets of plausible labels rather than a single label, thereby giving a more appropriate and…

In this paper, we study the differentiability of implicitly defined functions which we encounter in the profile likelihood estimation of parameters in semi-parametric models. Scott and Wild (Biometrika 84 (1997) 57-71; J. Statist. Plann.…

Predictions of uncertainty-aware models are diverse, ranging from single point estimates (often averaged over prediction samples) to predictive distributions, to set-valued or credal-set representations. We propose a novel unified…

We unify functional and logic programming by treating predicatesas functions equipped with their support: the set of inputs whose output is nonzero. Datalog, for instance, is a language of finitely supported boolean functions. Finite…

We propose and analyze a novel theoretical and algorithmic framework for structured prediction. While so far the term has referred to discrete output spaces, here we consider more general settings, such as manifolds or spaces of probability…

Decision making or scientific discovery pipelines such as job hiring and drug discovery often involve multiple stages: before any resource-intensive step, there is often an initial screening that uses predictions from a machine learning…

This work introduces the Supervised Expectation-Maximization Framework (SEMF), a versatile and model-agnostic approach for generating prediction intervals with any ML model. SEMF extends the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, traditionally…

Verbal confidence elicitation is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from LLMs. We tested whether seven instruction-tuned open-weight models (3-9B parameters, four families) produce verbalised confidence that meets minimal validity…

In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample…

This paper proposes a new approach to obtain uniformly valid inference for linear functionals or scalar subvectors of a partially identified parameter defined by linear moment inequalities. The procedure amounts to bootstrapping the value…

Machine Learning explainability techniques have been proposed as a means of `explaining' or interrogating a model in order to understand why a particular decision or prediction has been made. Such an ability is especially important at a…

The empirical use of variable transformations within (strictly) consistent loss functions is widespread, yet a theoretical understanding is lacking. To address this gap, we develop a theoretical framework that establishes formal…

In cases of uncertainty, a multi-class classifier preferably returns a set of candidate classes instead of predicting a single class label with little guarantee. More precisely, the classifier should strive for an optimal balance between…

Prompt learning is an effective paradigm that bridges gaps between the pre-training tasks and the corresponding downstream applications. Approaches based on this paradigm have achieved great transcendent results in various applications.…