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A method for quantile-based, semi-parametric historical simulation estimation of multiple step ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) models is developed. It uses the quantile loss function, analogous to how the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-06 Richard Gerlach , Antonio Naimoli , Giuseppe Storti

Constructing valid prediction intervals rather than point estimates is a well-established approach for uncertainty quantification in the regression setting. Models equipped with this capacity output an interval of values in which the ground…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-07 Thomas Pouplin , Alan Jeffares , Nabeel Seedat , Mihaela van der Schaar

Quantile regression is an effective technique to quantify uncertainty, fit challenging underlying distributions, and often provide full probabilistic predictions through joint learnings over multiple quantile levels. A common drawback of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Youngsuk Park , Danielle Maddix , François-Xavier Aubet , Kelvin Kan , Jan Gasthaus , Yuyang Wang

We develop several algorithms for performing quantum phase estimation based on basic measurements and classical post-processing. We present a pedagogical review of quantum phase estimation and simulate the algorithm to numerically determine…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2013-07-30 Krysta M. Svore , Matthew B. Hastings , Michael Freedman

Estimating the conditional quantile of the interested variable with respect to changes in the covariates is frequent in many economical applications as it can offer a comprehensive insight. In this paper, we propose a novel semiparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-08 Jing Lv

Penalized quantile regression (QR) is widely used for studying the relationship between a response variable and a set of predictors under data heterogeneity in high-dimensional settings. Compared to penalized least squares, scalable…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-06 Rebeka Man , Xiaoou Pan , Kean Ming Tan , Wen-Xin Zhou

The quantification of uncertainty in prediction models is crucial for reliable decision-making, yet remains a significant challenge. Interval time series forecasting offers a principled solution to this problem by providing prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-20 Miaoxuan Zhu , Yi Yu , Yuyang Li , Wei Li , Guangcan Liu

Quantile regression (QR) is a powerful tool for estimating one or more conditional quantiles of a target variable $\mathrm{Y}$ given explanatory features $\boldsymbol{\mathrm{X}}$. A limitation of QR is that it is only defined for scalar…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-05 Aviv A. Rosenberg , Sanketh Vedula , Yaniv Romano , Alex M. Bronstein

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for learning the relationship between a response variable and a multivariate predictor while exploring heterogeneous effects. In this paper, we consider statistical inference for quantile regression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-19 Xuming He , Xiaoou Pan , Kean Ming Tan , Wen-Xin Zhou

Quantum phase estimation is the workhorse behind any quantum algorithm and a promising method for determining ground state energies of strongly correlated quantum systems. Low-cost quantum phase estimation techniques make use of circuits…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-03-27 T. E. O'Brien , B. Tarasinski , B. M. Terhal

In this work, we propose a continuous-variable quantum algorithm to compute the projection coefficients of a holomorphic function in the Segal--Bargmann space by leveraging its isometric correspondence with single-mode quantum states. Using…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-21 M. W. AlMasri

We propose a quantum algorithm based on ridge regression model, which get the optimal fitting parameters w and a regularization hyperparameter {\alpha} by analysing the training dataset. The algorithm consists of two subalgorithms. One is…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-04-28 Menghan Chen , Chaohua Yu , Gongde Guo , Song Lin

Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) is a recently proposed method for constructing prediction intervals for a response $Y$ given covariates $X$, without making distributional assumptions. However, existing constructions of CQR can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-16 Raphael Rossellini , Rina Foygel Barber , Rebecca Willett

This paper introduces a novel and scalable framework for uncertainty estimation and separation with applications in data driven modeling in science and engineering tasks where reliable uncertainty quantification is critical. Leveraging an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Navid Ansari , Hans-Peter Seidel , Vahid Babaei

Quantile regression is a method to estimate the quantiles of the conditional distribution of a response variable, and as such it permits a much more accurate portrayal of the relationship between the response variable and observed…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2014-01-08 Jiyan Yang , Xiangrui Meng , Michael W. Mahoney

This article presents a new method for forecasting Value at Risk. Convolutional neural networks can do time series forecasting, since they can learn local patterns in time. A simple modification enables them to forecast not the mean, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-01 Gábor Petneházi

This study presents a nonlinear signal processing method for accurate radar-based heartbeat interval estimation by exploiting the periodicity of higher-order harmonics inherent in heartbeat signals. Unlike conventional approaches that…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-29 Kohei Shimomura , Chi-Hsuan Lee , Takuya Sakamoto

We present an inference method utilizing artificial neural networks for parameter estimation of a quantum probe monitored through a single continuous measurement. Unlike existing approaches focusing on the diffusive signals generated by…

Due to the dynamic nature of financial markets, maintaining models that produce precise predictions over time is difficult. Often the goal isn't just point prediction but determining uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty, especially the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-06 Mingshu Li , Bhaskarjit Sarmah , Dhruv Desai , Joshua Rosaler , Snigdha Bhagat , Philip Sommer , Dhagash Mehta

The emergence of Quantum Machine Learning (QML) to enhance traditional classical learning methods has seen various limitations to its realisation. There is therefore an imperative to develop quantum models with unique model hypotheses to…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-02-21 Maiyuren Srikumar , Charles D. Hill , Lloyd C. L. Hollenberg