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Generalization error bounds are essential to understanding machine learning algorithms. This paper presents novel expected generalization error upper bounds based on the average joint distribution between the output hypothesis and each…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-02-25 Gholamali Aminian , Yuheng Bu , Gregory Wornell , Miguel Rodrigues

In this paper we use Gaussian Process (GP) regression to propose a novel approach for predicting volatility of financial returns by forecasting the envelopes of the time series. We provide a direct comparison of their performance to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-03 Syed Ali Asad Rizvi , Stephen J. Roberts , Michael A. Osborne , Favour Nyikosa

In this paper, we analyze a generic algorithm scheme for sequential global optimization using Gaussian processes. The upper bounds we derive on the cumulative regret for this generic algorithm improve by an exponential factor the previously…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-09 Emile Contal , Vianney Perchet , Nicolas Vayatis

Latent Gaussian process (GP) models are flexible probabilistic non-parametric function models. Vecchia approximations are accurate approximations for GPs to overcome computational bottlenecks for large data, and the Laplace approximation is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-09 Pascal Kündig , Fabio Sigrist

In decision-making systems, it is important to have classifiers that have calibrated uncertainties, with an optimisation objective that can be used for automated model selection and training. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-05 Vincent Dutordoir , Mark van der Wilk , Artem Artemev , James Hensman

Minimax problems have achieved success in machine learning such as adversarial training, robust optimization, reinforcement learning. For theoretical analysis, current optimal excess risk bounds, which are composed by generalization error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-14 Bowei Zhu , Shaojie Li , Yong Liu

A new algorithm is developed to tackle the issue of sampling non-Gaussian model parameter posterior probability distributions that arise from solutions to Bayesian inverse problems. The algorithm aims to mitigate some of the hurdles faced…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-19 Leen Alawieh , Jonathan Goodman , John B. Bell

Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used in nonparametric regression, classification and spatio-temporal modeling, motivated in part by a rich literature on theoretical properties. However, a well known drawback of GPs that limits their use…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-29 Anjishnu Banerjee , David Dunson , Surya Tokdar

Gaussian processes have been successful in both supervised and unsupervised machine learning tasks, but their computational complexity has constrained practical applications. We introduce a new approximation for large-scale Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-03 David A. Moore , Stuart J. Russell

Bayesian inference with empirical likelihood faces a challenge as the posterior domain is a proper subset of the original parameter space due to the convex hull constraint. We propose a regularized exponentially tilted empirical likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-23 Eunseop Kim , Steven N. MacEachern , Mario Peruggia

Many algorithms have been recently proposed for causal machine learning. Yet, there is little to no theory on their quality, especially considering finite samples. In this work, we propose a theory based on generalization bounds that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-16 Daniel Csillag , Claudio José Struchiner , Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

Gaussian Process (GP) regression is shown to be effective for learning unknown dynamics, enabling efficient and safety-aware control strategies across diverse applications. However, existing GP-based model predictive control (GP-MPC)…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-13 Manish Prajapat , Johannes Köhler , Amon Lahr , Andreas Krause , Melanie N. Zeilinger

The Sampled Gaussian Mechanism (SGM)---a composition of subsampling and the additive Gaussian noise---has been successfully used in a number of machine learning applications. The mechanism's unexpected power is derived from privacy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-29 Ilya Mironov , Kunal Talwar , Li Zhang

Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte Carlo techniques, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and particle filters, have become very popular in signal processing over the last years. However, in many…

Computation · Statistics 2012-05-29 Luca Martino , Joaquin Miguez

Gaussian processes (GPs) have been proven to be powerful tools in various areas of machine learning. However, there are very few applications of GPs in the scenario of multi-view learning. In this paper, we present a new GP model for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-01-18 Qiuyang Liu , Shiliang Sun

Due to their flexibility and theoretical tractability Gaussian process (GP) regression models have become a central topic in modern statistics and machine learning. While the true posterior in these models is given explicitly, numerical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-19 Bernhard Stankewitz , Botond Szabo

Gaussian process (GP) based Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful method for optimizing black-box functions efficiently. The practical performance and theoretical guarantees of this approach depend on having the correct GP hyperparameter…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-07 Huong Ha , Vu Nguyen , Hung Tran-The , Hongyu Zhang , Xiuzhen Zhang , Anton van den Hengel

Standard sparse pseudo-input approximations to the Gaussian process (GP) cannot handle complex functions well. Sparse spectrum alternatives attempt to answer this but are known to over-fit. We suggest the use of variational inference for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-23 Yarin Gal , Richard Turner

This work advances the theoretical understanding of quantum learning by establishing a new family of upper bounds on the expected generalization error of quantum learning algorithms, leveraging the framework introduced by Caro et al. (2024)…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-20 Naqueeb Ahmad Warsi , Ayanava Dasgupta , Masahito Hayashi

We leverage the Gibbs inequality and its natural generalization to R\'enyi entropies to derive closed-form parametric expressions of the optimal lower bounds of $\rho$th-order guessing entropy (guessing moment) of a secret taking values on…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-01-31 Julien Béguinot , Olivier Rioul