Related papers: Stochastic leverage effect in high-frequency data:…
We propose a new estimator for the spot covariance matrix of a multi-dimensional continuous semi-martingale log asset price process which is subject to noise and non-synchronous observations. The estimator is constructed based on a local…
Multivariate probability density functions of returns are constructed in order to model the empirical behavior of returns in a financial time series. They describe the well-established deviations from the Gaussian random walk, such as an…
A parameter estimation problem is considered for a one-dimensional stochastic wave equation driven by additive space-time Gaussian white noise. The estimator is of spectral type and utilizes a finite number of the spatial Fourier…
We explore a stochastic model that enables capturing external influences in two specific ways. The model allows for the expression of uncertainty in the parametrisation of the stochastic dynamics and incorporates patterns to account for…
In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…
This paper presents a novel one-factor stochastic volatility model where the instantaneous volatility of the asset log-return is a diffusion with a quadratic drift and a linear dispersion function. The instantaneous volatility mean reverts…
Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) are the workhorse in macroeconomic forecasting. Research in the last decade has established the importance of allowing time-varying volatility to capture both secular and cyclical variations in…
We consider a stochastic volatility model with jumps where the underlying asset price is driven by the process sum of a 2-dimensional Brownian motion and a 2-dimensional compensated Poisson process. The market is incomplete, resulting in…
Normal human heart rate shows complex fluctuations in time, which is natural, since heart rate is controlled by a large number of different feedback control loops. These unpredictable fluctuations have been shown to display fractal…
We present a simple agent-based model of a financial system composed of leveraged investors such as banks that invest in stocks and manage their risk using a Value-at-Risk constraint, based on historical observations of asset prices. The…
This paper offers a new class of models of the term structure of interest rates. We allow each instantaneous forward rate to be driven by a different stochastic shock, constrained in such a way as to keep the forward rate curve continuous.…
In performative prediction, the choice of a model influences the distribution of future data, typically through actions taken based on the model's predictions. We initiate the study of stochastic optimization for performative prediction.…
The local volatility model is a widely used for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. While its main appeal is its capability of reproducing any given surface of observed option prices---it provides a perfect fit---the essential…
We formulate and analyze an inverse problem using derivatives prices to obtain an implied filtering density on volatility's hidden state. Stochastic volatility is the unobserved state in a hidden Markov model (HMM) and can be tracked using…
The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…
We propose a model to forecast large realized covariance matrices of returns, applying it to the constituents of the S\&P 500 daily. To address the curse of dimensionality, we decompose the return covariance matrix using standard firm-level…
The leverage effect refers to the generally negative correlation between the return of an asset and the changes in its volatility. There is broad agreement in the literature that the effect should be present for theoretical reasons, and it…
We consider the analysis of continuous repeated measurement outcomes that are collected through time, also known as longitudinal data. A standard framework for analysing data of this kind is a linear Gaussian mixed-effects model within…
In this paper, we derive the price of a European call option of an asset following a normal process assuming stochastic volatility. The volatility is assumed to follow the Cox Ingersoll Ross (CIR) process. We then use the fast Fourier…
Stochastic inverse problems considered in this article consist of estimating the probability distributions of intrinsically random inputs of computer models. These estimations are based on observable outputs affected by model noise, and…