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Power posteriors "robustify" standard Bayesian inference by raising the likelihood to a constant fractional power, effectively downweighting its influence in the calculation of the posterior. Power posteriors have been shown to be more…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-22 Ruchira Ray , Marco Avella Medina , Cynthia Rush

Formulating a statistical inverse problem as one of inference in a Bayesian model has great appeal, notably for what this brings in terms of coherence, the interpretability of regularisation penalties, the integration of all uncertainties,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-19 Natalia A. Bochkina , Peter J. Green

High-dimensional linear models have been widely studied, but the developments in high-dimensional generalized linear models, or GLMs, have been slower. In this paper, we propose an empirical or data-driven prior leading to an empirical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-09 Yiqi Tang , Ryan Martin

In a smooth semiparametric estimation problem, the marginal posterior for the parameter of interest is expected to be asymptotically normal and satisfy frequentist criteria of optimality if the model is endowed with a suitable prior. It is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-30 P. J. Bickel , B. J. K. Kleijn

The classical parametric and semiparametric Bernstein -- von Mises (BvM) results are reconsidered in a non-classical setup allowing finite samples and model misspecification. In the case of a finite dimensional nuisance parameter we obtain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-24 Maxim Panov , Vladimir Spokoiny

We investigate the asymptotic normality of the posterior distribution in the discrete setting, when model dimension increases with sample size. We consider a probability mass function $\theta_0$ on $\mathbbm{N}\setminus \{0\}$ and a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-01-29 S. Boucheron , E. Gassiat

In the recent Bayesian nonparametric literature, many examples have been reported in which Bayesian estimators and posterior distributions do not achieve the optimal convergence rate, indicating that the Bernstein-von Mises theorem does not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Yongdai Kim , Jaeyong Lee

We consider an infinite-dimensional Gaussian regression model, equipped with a high-dimensional Gaussian prior. We address the frequentist validity of posterior credible sets for a vector of linear functionals. We specify conditions for a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-12 Gustav Rømer

In this paper, we obtain quantitative, non-asymptotic, and data-dependent \textit{Bernstein-von Mises type} bounds on the normal approximation of the posterior distribution in exponential family models with arbitrary centring and scaling.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-14 Adrian Fischer , Robert E. Gaunt , Gesine Reinert , Yvik Swan

Posterior contractions rates (PCRs) strengthen the notion of Bayesian consistency, quantifying the speed at which the posterior distribution concentrates on arbitrarily small neighborhoods of the true model, with probability tending to 1 or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-31 Federico Camerlenghi , Emanuele Dolera , Stefano Favaro , Edoardo Mainini

To the frequentist who computes posteriors, not all priors are useful asymptotically: in this paper Schwartz's 1965 Kullback-Leibler condition is generalised to enable frequentist interpretation of convergence of posterior distributions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-28 B. J. K. Kleijn

We study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to linear inverse problems under discrete observations. We use the discrete Fourier transform to convert our model into a truncated Gaussian sequence model, that is closely related to the classical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-31 Shota Gugushvili , Aad van der Vaart , Dong Yan

Normalized random measures with independent increments represent a large class of Bayesian nonaprametric priors and are widely used in the Bayesian nonparametric framework. In this paper, we provide the posterior consistency analysis for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-24 Junxi Zhang , Yaozhong Hu

We study spike-and-slab priors for generalized linear models with possible grouped sparsity. The main result is an oracle Bernstein--von Mises theorem for the fractional posterior under supportwise likelihood assumptions. The proof develops…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Hanqing Li , Xuewen Lu

We consider Bayesian nonparametric inference in the right-censoring survival model, where modeling is made at the level of the hazard rate. We derive posterior limiting distributions for linear functionals of the hazard, and then for `many'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Ismaël Castillo , Stéphanie van der Pas

The posterior distribution in a nonparametric inverse problem is shown to contract to the true parameter at a rate that depends on the smoothness of the parameter, and the smoothness and scale of the prior. Correct combinations of these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-24 B. T. Knapik , A. W. van der Vaart , J. H. van Zanten

We consider nonparametric Bayesian estimation of a probability density $p$ based on a random sample of size $n$ from this density using a hierarchical prior. The prior consists, for instance, of prior weights on the regularity of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Subhashis Ghosal , Jüri Lember , Aad van der Vaart

The Pitman-Yor process is a random probability distribution, that can be used as a prior distribution in a nonparametric Bayesian analysis. The process is of species sampling type and generates discrete distributions, which yield of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-10 S. E. M. P. Franssen , A. W. van der Vaart

We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-10 Weining Shen , Subhashis Ghosal

In high-dimensional Bayesian statistics, various methods have been developed, including prior distributions that induce parameter sparsity to handle many parameters. Yet, these approaches often overlook the rich spectral structure of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-06 Tomoya Wakayama , Masaaki Imaizumi