Related papers: Drift, Minorization, and Hitting Times
The problem of detecting a change in the drift of a Brownian motion is considered. The change point is assumed to have a modified exponential prior distribution with unknown parameters. A worst-case analysis with respect to these parameters…
The notion of drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution, which is underlying the observed data, changes over time. Albeit many attempts were made to deal with drift, formal notions of drift are application-dependent and…
In this paper, we consider a general class of two-time-scale Markov chains whose transition rate matrix depends on a parameter $\lambda>0$. We assume that some transition rates of the Markov chain will tend to infinity as…
A well-known folklore result in the MCMC community is that the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm mixes quickly for any unimodal target, as long as the tails are not too heavy. Although we've heard this fact stated many times in conversation, we…
Many probabilistic inference problems such as stochastic filtering or the computation of rare event probabilities require model analysis under initial and terminal constraints. We propose a solution to this bridging problem for the widely…
We survey information-theoretic approaches to the reduction of Markov chains. Our survey is structured in two parts: The first part considers Markov chain coarse graining, which focuses on projecting the Markov chain to a process on a…
In the paper, we study a new rate of convergence estimate for homogeneous discrete-time nonlinear Markov chains based on the Markov-Dobrushin condition. This result generalizes the convergence estimates for any positive number of transition…
There is a natural connection between two types of recurrence law: hitting times to shrinking targets, and hitting times to a fixed target (usually seen as escape through a hole). We show that for systems which mix exponentially fast, one…
Drift analysis aims at translating the expected progress of an evolutionary algorithm (or more generally, a random process) into a probabilistic guarantee on its run time (hitting time). So far, drift arguments have been successfully…
We have recently proposed quantized gossip algorithms which solve the consensus and averaging problems on directed graphs with the least restrictive connectivity requirements. In this paper we study the convergence time of these algorithms.…
In a series of recent works, Boyd, Diaconis, and their co-authors have introduced a semidefinite programming approach for computing the fastest mixing Markov chain on a graph of allowed transitions, given a target stationary distribution.…
Drift in machine learning refers to the phenomenon where the statistical properties of data or context, in which the model operates, change over time leading to a decrease in its performance. Therefore, maintaining a constant monitoring…
Consider a reference Markov process with initial distribution $\pi_{0}$ and transition kernels $\{M_{t}\}_{t\in[1:T]}$, for some $T\in\mathbb{N}$. Assume that you are given distribution $\pi_{T}$, which is not equal to the marginal…
Given a discrete source distribution $\mu$ and discrete target distribution $\nu$ on a common finite state space $\mathcal{X}$, we are tasked with transporting $\mu$ to $\nu$ using a given discrete-time Markov chain $X$ with the quickest…
The distribution of the "mixing time" or the "time to stationarity" in a discrete time irreducible Markov chain, starting in state i, can be defined as the number of trials to reach a state sampled from the stationary distribution of the…
We develop a new methodology for the fluctuation theory of continuous-time skip-free Markov chains, extending the recent work of Choi and Patie [5] for discrete-time skip-free Markov chains. As the main application we use it to derive a…
In the present paper, we investigate the relationship between hitting times and hitting probabilities in discrete-time imprecise Markov chains (IMCs). We define lower and upper hitting times and probabilities for IMCs whose set of…
Drift analysis is a powerful tool for analyzing the time complexity of evolutionary algorithms. However, it requires manual construction of drift functions to bound hitting time for each specific algorithm and problem. To address this…
Time series often appear in an additive hierarchical structure. In such cases, time series on higher levels are the sums of their subordinate time series. This hierarchical structure places a natural constraint on forecasts. However,…
Over the last 25 years, techniques based on drift and minorization (d&m) have been mainstays in the convergence analysis of MCMC algorithms. However, results presented herein suggest that d&m may be less useful in the emerging area of…