Related papers: Empirical and Constrained Empirical Bayes Variance…
The sample mean is often used to aggregate different unbiased estimates of a parameter, producing a final estimate that is unbiased but possibly high-variance. This paper introduces the Bayesian median of means, an aggregation rule that…
We consider how increasingly available observational data can be used to improve the design of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We seek to design a prospective RCT, with the intent of using an Empirical Bayes estimator to shrink the…
Propensity score methods are an important tool to help reduce confounding in non-experimental studies. Most propensity score methods assume that covariates are measured without error. However, covariates are often measured with error, which…
This article shows that increasing the observation variance at small scales can reduce the ensemble size required to avoid collapse in particle filtering of spatially-extended dynamics and improve the resulting uncertainty quantification at…
We propose the use of a simple intuitive principle for measuring algorithmic classification bias: the significance of the differences in a classifier's error rates across the various demographics is inversely commensurate with the sample…
This paper introduces empirical best predictors of small area bivariate parameters, like ratios of sums or sums of ratios, by assuming that the target unit-level vector follows a bivariate nested error regression model. The corresponding…
Nearly all estimators in statistical prediction come with an associated tuning parameter, in one way or another. Common practice, given data, is to choose the tuning parameter value that minimizes a constructed estimate of the prediction…
The System Usability Scale (SUS) is a short, survey-based approach used to determine the usability of a system from an end user perspective once a prototype is available for assessment. Individual scores are gathered using a 10-question…
The problem of estimating the mean of a normal vector with known but unequal variances introduces substantial difficulties that impair the adequacy of traditional empirical Bayes estimators. By taking a different approach, that treats the…
We propose a new estimator for the high-dimensional linear regression model with observation error in the design where the number of coefficients is potentially larger than the sample size. The main novelty of our procedure is that the…
Empirical Bayes (EB) improves the accuracy of simultaneous inference "by learning from the experience of others" (Efron, 2012). Classical EB theory focuses on latent variables that are iid draws from a fitted prior (Efron, 2019). Modern…
The study of third-order statistics in large-scale structure analyses has been hampered by the increased complexity of bispectrum estimators (compared to power spectra), the large dimensionality of the data vector, and the difficulty in…
Probability integral transforms (PITs) and empirical $p$-values are widely used to assess the calibration of predictive distributions. While exact PIT values are uniformly distributed under correct model specification, practical…
This paper is concerned with the small area estimation in the multivariate Fay-Herriot model where covariance matrix of random effects are fully unknown. The covariance matrix is estimated by a Prasad-Rao type consistent estimator, and the…
The widely recommended procedure of Bayesian model averaging is flawed in the M-open setting in which the true data-generating process is not one of the candidate models being fit. We take the idea of stacking from the point estimation…
Bayesian simulation-based inference (SBI) methods are used in statistical models where simulation is feasible but the likelihood is intractable. Standard SBI methods can perform poorly in cases of model misspecification, and there has been…
To model categorical response variables given their covariates, we propose a permuted and augmented stick-breaking (paSB) construction that one-to-one maps the observed categories to randomly permuted latent sticks. This new construction…
Simulation schemes for probabilistic inference in Bayesian belief networks offer many advantages over exact algorithms; for example, these schemes have a linear and thus predictable runtime while exact algorithms have exponential runtime.…
An informative sampling design leads to the selection of units whose inclusion probabilities are correlated with the response variable of interest. Model inference performed on the resulting observed sample will be biased for the population…
This paper constructs improved estimators of the means in the Gaussian saturated one-way layout with an ordinal factor. The least squares estimator for the mean vector in this saturated model is usually inadmissible. The hybrid shrinkage…