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A major limitation of machine learning (ML) prediction models is that they recover associational, rather than causal, predictive relationships between variables. In high-stakes automation applications of ML this is problematic, as the model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Jianqiao Mao , Max A. Little

Confounding variables are a well known source of nuisance in biomedical studies. They present an even greater challenge when we combine them with black-box machine learning techniques that operate on raw data. This work presents two case…

Causal effect estimation has been studied by many researchers when only observational data is available. Sound and complete algorithms have been developed for pointwise estimation of identifiable causal queries. For non-identifiable causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-26 Ziwei Jiang , Lai Wei , Murat Kocaoglu

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding is a challenging problem. Existing studies leveraged proxy variables or multiple treatments to adjust for the confounding bias. In particular, the latter approach attributes…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-17 Yong Wu , Mingzhou Liu , Jing Yan , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Yizhou Wang , Xinwei Sun

This paper serves as a literature review of methodology concerning the (modern) causal inference methods to address the causal estimand with observational/survey data that have been or will be used in social science research. Mainly, this…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-02 Guanghui Pan

Although randomized experiments are widely regarded as the gold standard for estimating causal effects, missing data of the pretreatment covariates makes it challenging to estimate the subgroup causal effects. When the missing data…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-08 Peng Ding , Zhi Geng

We examine the conditions under which descriptive inference can be based directly on the observed distribution in a non-probability sample, under both the super-population and quasi-randomisation modelling approaches. Review of existing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-02 Li-Chun Zhang

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference using observational data consisting of outcome, treatment, and a set of confounders. The conditional distribution of the outcome given treatment and confounders is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Yongseok Hur , Joonhyuk Jung , Juhee Lee

A key condition for obtaining reliable estimates of the causal effect of a treatment is overlap (a.k.a. positivity): the distributions of the features used to perform causal adjustment cannot be too different in the treated and control…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-14 Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

Estimating long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational and short-term experimental data is a crucial but challenging problem in many real-world scenarios. In existing methods, several ideal assumptions, e.g. latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-12 Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Weilin Chen , Zeqin Yang , Zijian Li , Peng Zhen , Jiecheng Guo

Duda, Hart, and Nilsson have set forth a method for rule-based inference systems to use in updating the probabilities of hypotheses on the basis of multiple items of new evidence. Pednault, Zucker, and Muresan claimed to give conditions…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 Rodney W. Johnson

Incomplete observability of data generates an identification problem. There is no panacea for missing data. What one can learn about a population parameter depends on the assumptions one finds credible to maintain. The credibility of…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-05-17 Charles F. Manski

Identifying effects of actions (treatments) on outcome variables from observational data and causal assumptions is a fundamental problem in causal inference. This identification is made difficult by the presence of confounders which can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-19 Ilya Shpitser , Tyler VanderWeele , James M. Robins

Whether a variable is the cause of another, or simply associated with it, is often an important scientific question. Causal Inference is the name associated with the body of techniques for addressing that question in a statistical setting.…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-25 Caren Marzban , Yikun Zhang , Nicholas Bond , Michael Richman

Unmeasured confounding remains a critical challenge in causal inference for the social sciences. This paper proposes a sensitivity analysis framework to systematically evaluate how unmeasured confounders influence statistical inference in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-21 Cheng Lin , Jose M. Pena , Adel Daoud

A scientific phenomenon under study may often be manifested by data arising from processes, i.e. sources, that may describe this phenomenon. In this contex of multi-source data, we define the "out-of-source" error, that is the error…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-08 Georgios Afendras , Marianthi Markatou

When decision-makers can directly intervene, policy evaluation algorithms give valid causal estimates. In off-policy evaluation (OPE), there may exist unobserved variables that both impact the dynamics and are used by the unknown behavior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-05 David Bruns-Smith

The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-14 Fani Tsapeli , Peter Tino , Mirco Musolesi

In aggregated variables the impact of interventions is typically ill-defined because different micro-realizations of the same macro-intervention can result in different changes of downstream macro-variables. We show that this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-23 Yuchen Zhu , Kailash Budhathoki , Jonas Kuebler , Dominik Janzing

Over the past few decades, addressing "spatial confounding" has become a major topic in spatial statistics. However, the literature has provided conflicting definitions, and many proposed solutions are tied to specific analysis models and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-14 Brian Gilbert , Abhirup Datta , Joan A. Casey , Elizabeth L. Ogburn
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