Related papers: Vector-borne epidemics driven by human mobility
The viral load is known to be a chief predictor of the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. In this work, we investigate the role of the individuals' viral load in the disease transmission by proposing a new…
Urban areas with larger and more connected populations offer an auspicious environment for contagion processes such as the spread of pathogens. Empirical evidence reveals a systematic increase in the rates of certain sexually transmitted…
Background: Human-to-human transmission of pathogens fundamentally depends on interactions among infectious and susceptible individuals, yet traditional population-scale models often overlook the stochastic, behaviour-driven, and highly…
We investigate the role of migration patterns on the spread of epidemics in complex networks. We enhance the SIS-diffusion model on metapopulations to a nonlinear diffusion. Specifically, individuals move randomly over the network but at a…
Predicting the spread of vector-borne diseases in response to incursions requires knowledge of both host and vector demographics in advance of an outbreak. Whereas host population data is typically available, for novel disease introductions…
A model for the transmission of dengue disease is presented. It consists of eight mutually-exclusive compartments representing the human and vector dynamics. It also includes a control parameter (adulticide spray) in order to combat the…
The epidemic spreading of a disease can be described by a contact network whose nodes are persons or centers of contagion and links heterogeneous relations among them. We provide a procedure to identify multiple sources of an outbreak or…
Computational disease modeling plays a crucial role in understanding and controlling the transmission of infectious diseases. While agent-based models (ABMs) provide detailed insights into individual dynamics, accurately replicating human…
This paper describes a technique for analyzing the stochastic structure of the vectorial capacity using moment--generating functions. In such formulation, for an infectious disease transmitted by a vector, we obtain the generating function…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
Passenger contact in public transit (PT) networks can be a key mediate in the spreading of infectious diseases. This paper proposes a time-varying weighted PT encounter network to model the spreading of infectious diseases through the PT…
Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of…
Our study presents an intermediate-level modeling approach that bridges the gap between complex Agent-Based Models (ABMs) and traditional compartmental models for infectious diseases. We introduce "super-agents" to simulate infection spread…
Connecting the different scales of epidemic dynamics, from individuals to communities to nations, remains one of the main challenges of disease modeling. Here, we revisit one of the largest public health efforts deployed against a localized…
Climate change, which is largely linked to human activities, is already having a considerable impact on our societies. Based on current trends, climate change is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. Beyond its impact on the pace of…
Spatial models for spread of an epidemic may be mapped onto bond percolation. We point out that with disorder in the strength of contacts between individuals patchiness in the spread of the epidemic is very likely, and the criterion for…
Pathogens can spread epidemically through populations. Beneficial contagions, such as viruses that enhance host survival or technological innovations that improve quality of life, also have the potential to spread epidemically. How do the…
Bursts in human and natural activities are highly clustered in time, suggesting that these activities are influenced by previous events within the social or natural system. Bursty behavior in the real world conveys information of underlying…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…