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Modern neural networks are very powerful predictive models, but they are often incapable of recognizing when their predictions may be wrong. Closely related to this is the task of out-of-distribution detection, where a network must…
Deep Learning is a consolidated, state-of-the-art Machine Learning tool to fit a function when provided with large data sets of examples. However, in regression tasks, the straightforward application of Deep Learning models provides a point…
Deep learning (DL) has shown great potential in medical image enhancement problems, such as super-resolution or image synthesis. However, to date, little consideration has been given to uncertainty quantification over the output image. Here…
Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty.…
Uncertainty estimation is an essential step in the evaluation of the robustness for deep learning models in computer vision, especially when applied in risk-sensitive areas. However, most state-of-the-art deep learning models either fail to…
Uncertainty calibration is crucial for various machine learning applications, yet it remains challenging. Many models exhibit hallucinations - confident yet inaccurate responses - due to miscalibrated confidence. Here, we show that the…
Effective quantification of uncertainty is an essential and still missing step towards a greater adoption of deep-learning approaches in different applications, including mission-critical ones. In particular, investigations on the…
In supervised learning, understanding an input's proximity to the training data can help a model decide whether it has sufficient evidence for reaching a reliable prediction. While powerful probabilistic models such as Gaussian Processes…
As we move away from the data, the predictive uncertainty should increase, since a great variety of explanations are consistent with the little available information. We introduce Distance-Aware Prior (DAP) calibration, a method to correct…
The belief network is a well-known graphical structure for representing independences in a joint probability distribution. The methods, which perform probabilistic inference in belief networks, often treat the conditional probabilities…
Neural Linear Models (NLM) are deep Bayesian models that produce predictive uncertainties by learning features from the data and then performing Bayesian linear regression over these features. Despite their popularity, few works have…
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer a mathematically grounded framework to quantify the uncertainty of model predictions but come with a prohibitive computation cost for both training and inference. In this work, we show a novel network…
One of the most common problems preventing the application of prediction models in the real world is lack of generalization: The accuracy of models, measured in the benchmark does repeat itself on future data, e.g. in the settings of real…
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become integral to a wide range of scientific and practical applications due to their flexibility and strong predictive performance. Despite their accuracy, however, DNNs frequently exhibit poor calibration,…
Explainability and uncertainty quantification are key to trustable artificial intelligence. However, the reasoning behind uncertainty estimates is generally left unexplained. Identifying the drivers of uncertainty complements explanations…
Deep neural networks has been increasingly applied in fault diagnostics, where it uses historical data to capture systems behavior, bypassing the need for high-fidelity physical models. However, despite their competence in prediction tasks,…
The uncertainty measurement of classifiers' predictions is especially important in applications such as medical diagnoses that need to ensure limited human resources can focus on the most uncertain predictions returned by machine learning…
In computational histopathology algorithms now outperform humans on a range of tasks, but to date none are employed for automated diagnoses in the clinic. Before algorithms can be involved in such high-stakes decisions they need to "know…
Uncertainty quantification in neural networks gained a lot of attention in the past years. The most popular approaches, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), Monte Carlo dropout, and deep ensembles have one thing in common: they are all based on…
We propose to use deep learning to estimate parameters in statistical models when standard likelihood estimation methods are computationally infeasible. We show how to estimate parameters from max-stable processes, where inference is…