Related papers: Identifiability of Structural Singular Vector Auto…
Exogenous heterogeneity, for example, in the form of instrumental variables can help us learn a system's underlying causal structure and predict the outcome of unseen intervention experiments. In this paper, we consider linear models in…
It has been known since Elliott (1998) that standard methods of inference on cointegrating relationships break down entirely when autoregressive roots are near but not exactly equal to unity. We consider this problem within the framework of…
Constraint-based structure learning algorithms infer the causal structure of multivariate systems from observational data by determining an equivalent class of causal structures compatible with the conditional independencies in the data.…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used for causal discovery and forecasting in multivariate time series analysis. In the high-dimensional setting, which is increasingly common in fields such as neuroscience and econometrics,…
The problem of broad practical interest in spatiotemporal data analysis, i.e., discovering interpretable dynamic patterns from spatiotemporal data, is studied in this paper. Towards this end, we develop a time-varying reduced-rank vector…
In this article, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the residual autocorrelations for periodic vector autoregressive time series models (PVAR henceforth) with uncorrelated but dependent innovations (i.e., weak PVAR). We then deduce the…
In this paper, two novel algorithms to estimate a Gaussian Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model from 1-bit measurements are introduced. They are based on the Yule-Walker scheme modified to account for quantisation. The scalar case has been…
A linear structural equation model relates random variables of interest and corresponding Gaussian noise terms via a linear equation system. Each such model can be represented by a mixed graph in which directed edges encode the linear…
We study the problem of detecting and locating change points in high-dimensional Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, whose transition matrices exhibit low rank plus sparse structure. We first address the problem of detecting a single change…
The task of causal representation learning aims to uncover latent higher-level causal variables that affect lower-level observations. Identifying the true latent causal variables from observed data, while allowing instantaneous causal…
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is a powerful tool in modeling complex time series and has been exploited in many fields. However, fitting high dimensional VAR model poses some unique challenges: On one hand, the dimensionality,…
Model misspecification in multivariate econometric models can strongly influence estimates of quantities of interest such as structural parameters, forecast distributions or responses to structural shocks, even more so if higher-order…
We propose a novel Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects among alternative patterns of exclusion restrictions to identify structural shocks…
Motivated by Tucker tensor decomposition, this paper imposes low-rank structures to the column and row spaces of coefficient matrices in a multivariate infinite-order vector autoregression (VAR), which leads to a supervised factor model…
The increasing availability of experimental data has intensified interest in calibrating stochastic models, raising fundamental questions about parameter identifiability. Structural identifiability determines whether parameters can be…
This paper studies a class of multivariate threshold autoregressive models, known as censored and kinked structural vector autoregressions (CKSVAR), which are notably able to accommodate series that are subject to occasionally binding…
Structural discovery amongst a set of variables is of interest in both static and dynamic settings. In the presence of lead-lag dependencies in the data, the dynamics of the system can be represented through a structural equation model…
Singular value decomposition is the key tool in the analysis and understanding of linear regularization methods. In the last decade nonlinear variational approaches such as $\ell^1$ or total variation regularizations became quite prominent…
The paper concerns the problem of predicting the effect of actions or interventions on a system from a combination of (i) statistical data on a set of observed variables, and (ii) qualitative causal knowledge encoded in the form of a…
A factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is defined by a VAR equation that captures lead-lag correlations amongst a set of observed variables $X$ and latent factors $F$, and a calibration equation that relates another set of…