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Probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) is a key component in the extended tool-chain required for efficient management of smart energy grids. Neural networks are widely considered to achieve improved prediction performances, supporting highly…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-12 Alessandro Brusaferri , Matteo Matteucci , Stefano Spinelli , Andrea Vitali

New methods are proposed for adjusting probabilistic forecasts to ensure coherence with the aggregation constraints inherent in temporal hierarchies. The different approaches nested within this framework include methods that exploit…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-18 Jooyoung Jeon , Anastasios Panagiotelis , Fotios Petropoulos

Probabilistic forecasts are essential for various downstream applications such as business development, traffic planning, and electrical grid balancing. Many of these probabilistic forecasts are performed on time series data that contain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Benedikt Heidrich , Kaleb Phipps , Oliver Neumann , Marian Turowski , Ralf Mikut , Veit Hagenmeyer

We are interested in the estimation and prediction of a parametric model on a short dataset upon which it is expected to overfit and perform badly. To overcome the lack of data (relatively to the dimension of the model) we propose the…

Applications · Statistics 2014-03-26 Tristan Launay , Anne Philippe , Sophie Lamarche

Energy forecasting has a vital role to play in smart grid (SG) systems involving various applications such as demand-side management, load shedding, and optimum dispatch. Managing efficient forecasting while ensuring the least possible…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-25 Devinder Kaur , Shama Naz Islam , Md. Apel Mahmud , Md. Enamul Haque , ZhaoYang Dong

Atmospheric models used for weather and climate prediction are traditionally formulated in a deterministic manner. In other words, given a particular state of the resolved scale variables, the most likely forcing from the sub-grid scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-16 Hannah M. Christensen , Salah Kouhen , Greta Miller , Raghul Parthipan

Electricity load forecasting enables the grid operators to optimally implement the smart grid's most essential features such as demand response and energy efficiency. Electricity demand profiles can vary drastically from one region to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-15 Abdul Wahab , Muhammad Anas Tahir , Naveed Iqbal , Faisal Shafait , Syed Muhammad Raza Kazmi

Demand response represents a significant but largely untapped resource that can greatly enhance the flexibility and reliability of power systems. This paper proposes a hierarchical control framework to facilitate the integrated coordination…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-01-10 Di Wu , Jianming Lian , Yannan Sun , Tao Yang , Jacob Hansen

Optimal operation of distribution grid resources relies on accurate estimation of its state and topology. Practical estimation of such quantities is complicated by the limited presence of real-time meters. This paper discusses a theoretical…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2020-01-06 Deepjyoti Deka , Michael Chertkov , Scott Backhaus

Because of increasing amounts of intermittent and distributed generators in power systems, many demand response programs have been developed to schedule flexible energy consumption. However, proper benchmarks for comparing these methods are…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-03-19 Koos van der Linden , Natalia Romero , Mathijs M. de Weerdt

Many planning and decision activities in logistics and supply chain management are based on forecasts of multiple time dependent factors. Therefore, the quality of planning depends on the quality of the forecasts. We compare various…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-07 Lena Schmid , Moritz Roidl , Markus Pauly

At present, most surface-quality prediction methods can only perform single-task prediction which results in under-utilised datasets, repetitive work and increased experimental costs. To counter this, the authors propose a Bayesian…

One of the primal challenges faced by utility companies is ensuring efficient supply with minimal greenhouse gas emissions. The advent of smart meters and smart grids provide an unprecedented advantage in realizing an optimised supply of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Adithya Ramachandran , Satyaki Chatterjee , Siming Bayer , Andreas Maier , Thorkil Flensmark

Higher penetration of renewable generation will increase the demand for adequate (and cost-effective) controllable resources on the grid that can mitigate and contain the contingencies locally before it can cause a network-wide collapse.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-06-08 Sai Pushpak Nandanoori , Soumya Kundu , Draguna Vrabie , Karan Kalsi , Jianming Lian

Load forecasting at distribution networks is more challenging than load forecasting at transmission networks because its load pattern is more stochastic and unpredictable. To plan sufficient resources and estimate DER hosting capacity, it…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-21 Hossein Sangrody , Ning Zhou , Xingye Qiao

Water demand is a highly important variable for operational control and decision making. Hence, the development of accurate forecasts is a valuable field of research to further improve the efficiency of water utilities. Focusing on…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-12 Jens Kley-Holsteg , Florian Ziel

Driven by ambitious renewable portfolio standards, large-scale inclusion of variable energy resources (such as wind and solar) are expected to introduce unprecedented levels of uncertainty into power system operations. The current practice…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-08-02 Semih Atakan , Harsha Gangammanavar , Suvrajeet Sen

Distribution grids represent the final tier in electric networks consisting of medium and low voltage lines that connect the distribution substations to the end-users. Traditionally, distribution networks have been operated in a radial…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-03-03 Deepjyoti Deka , Scott Backhaus , Michael Chertkov

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is pervasive in real-world applications, demanding not only predicting each level of the hierarchy, but also reconciling all forecasts to ensure coherency, i.e., the forecasts…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Shiyu Wang , Fan Zhou , Yinbo Sun , Lintao Ma , James Zhang , Yangfei Zheng

While the field of electricity price forecasting has benefited from plenty of contributions in the last two decades, it arguably lacks a rigorous approach to evaluating new predictive algorithms. The latter are often compared using unique,…

Applications · Statistics 2022-04-07 Jesus Lago , Grzegorz Marcjasz , Bart De Schutter , Rafał Weron