Related papers: Quantifying Life Insurance Risk using Least-Square…
Analytical, free of time consuming Monte Carlo simulations, framework for credit portfolio systematic risk metrics calculations is presented. Techniques are described that allow calculation of portfolio-level systematic risk measures…
We consider the problem of seeking an optimal set of model points associated to a fixed portfolio of life insurance policies. Such an optimal set is characterized by minimizing a certain risk functional, which gauges the average discrepancy…
Metrics of model goodness-of-fit, model comparison, and model parameter estimation are the main categories of statistical problems in science. Bayesian and frequentist methods that address these questions often rely on a likelihood…
We study the design of portfolios under a minimum risk criterion. The performance of the optimized portfolio relies on the accuracy of the estimated covariance matrix of the portfolio asset returns. For large portfolios, the number of…
A multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for quantifying model-form uncertainties associated with the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations is presented. Two, high-dimensional, stochastic extensions of the RANS equations are…
In this paper we consider the strategic asset allocation of an insurance company. This task can be seen as a special case of portfolio optimization. In the 1950s, Markowitz proposed to formulate portfolio optimization as a bicriteria…
For long term investments, model portfolios are defined at the level of indexes, a setup known as Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA). The possible outcomes at a scale of a few decades can be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations, resulting in a…
We present a quantum algorithm that analyzes risk more efficiently than Monte Carlo simulations traditionally used on classical computers. We employ quantum amplitude estimation to evaluate risk measures such as Value at Risk and…
Portfolio selection in the periodic investment of securities modeled by a multivariate Merton model with dependent jumps is considered. The optimization framework is designed to maximize expected terminal wealth when portfolio risk is…
Nested stochastic modeling has been on the rise in many fields of the financial industry. Such modeling arises whenever certain components of a stochastic model are stochastically determined by other models. There are at least two main…
The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is…
In the framework of Embedded Value new standards, namely the MCEV norms, the latest principles published in June 2008 address the issue of market and underwriting risks measurement by using stochastic models of projection and valorization.…
The Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) calculation is computationally intensive, relying on the market-consistent estimation of own funds. While Solvency II prioritizes the direct valuation method, it theoretically yields the same value as…
We consider a class of finite time horizon nonlinear stochastic optimal control problem, where the control acts additively on the dynamics and the control cost is quadratic. This framework is flexible and has found applications in many…
The stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) and the corresponding Monte Carlo (MC) method are among the most common approaches for studying stochastic processes. They rely on knowledge of interevent probability density functions (PDFs) and on…
Hedging methods to mitigate the exposure of variable annuity products to market risks require the calculation of market risk sensitivities (or "Greeks"). The complex, path-dependent nature of these products means these sensitivities…
Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are widely used in financial risk management, from estimating value-at-risk (VaR) to pricing over-the-counter derivatives. However, they come at a significant computational cost due to the number of scenarios…
High precision analytical approximation is proposed for variance-covariance based risk allocation in a portfolio of risky assets. A general case of a single-period multi-factor Merton-type model with stochastic recovery is considered. The…
${\rm CoVaR}$ is one of the most important measures of financial systemic risks. It is defined as the risk of a financial portfolio conditional on another financial portfolio being at risk. In this paper we first develop a Monte-Carlo…
The project managers who deal with risk management are often faced with the difficult task of determining the relative importance of the various sources of risk that affect the project. This prioritisation is crucial to direct management…