Related papers: Estimating Unknown Cycles in Geophysical data
Different methods are used to determine the scaling exponents associated with a time series describing a complex dynamical process, such as those observed in geophysical systems. Many of these methods are based on the numerical evaluation…
Time series analysis finds wide applications in fields such as weather forecasting, anomaly detection, and behavior recognition. Previous methods attempted to model temporal variations directly using 1D time series. However, this has been…
The time-varying geomagnetic field is a superposition of contributions from multiple internal and external current systems. A major source of geomagnetic variations at periods less than a few years are current systems external to the solid…
Comparing paleoclimate time series is complicated by a variety of typical features, including irregular sampling, age model uncertainty (e.g., errors due to interpolation between radiocarbon sampling points) and time uncertainty…
Many applications require the ability to judge uncertainty of time-series forecasts. Uncertainty is often specified as point-wise error bars around a mean or median forecast. Due to temporal dependencies, such a method obscures some…
We discuss how to characterize the behavior of a chaotic dynamical system depending on a parameter that varies periodically in time. In particular, we study the predictability time, the correlations and the mean responses, by defining a…
Recent measurements of durations of non-equilibrium processes provide valuable information on microscopic mechanisms and energetics. Comprehensive theory for corresponding experiments so far is well developed for single-particle systems…
Utilizing the information in observations of a complex system to make accurate predictions through a quantitative model when observations are completed at time $T$, requires an accurate estimate of the full state of the model at time $T$.…
Processes in ocean physics, air-sea interaction and ocean biogeochemistry span enormous ranges in spatial and temporal scales, that is, from molecular to planetary and from seconds to millennia. Identifying and implementing sustainable…
Time series are ubiquitous in our data rich world. In what follows I will describe how ideas from dynamical systems and topological data analysis can be combined to gain insights from time-varying data. We will see several applications to…
Specific aspects of time series analysis are discussed. They are related to the analysis of atmospheric data that are pertinent to clouds. A brief introduction on some of the most interesting topics of current research on climate/weather…
Here we define natural chaotic systems, like the earths weather and climate system, as chaotic systems which are open to the world so have constantly changing boundary conditions, and measurements of their states are subject to errors. In…
Oscillators are ubiquitous in nature, and usually associated with the existence of an asymptotic phase that governs the long-term dynamics of the oscillator. % We show that asymptotic phase can be estimated using a carefully chosen series…
In a statistical analysis in Particle Physics, nuisance parameters can be introduced to take into account various types of systematic uncertainties. The best estimate of such a parameter is often modeled as a Gaussian distributed variable…
The future energy system will largely depend on volatile renewable energy sources and temperature-dependent loads, which makes the weather a central influencing factor. This article presents a novel approach for simulating weather scenarios…
Model uncertainties and simulation uncertainties occur in mathematical modeling of multiscale complex systems, since some mechanisms or scales are not represented (i.e., "unresolved") due to lack in our understanding of these mechanisms or…
Earthquakes rank among the most destructive manifestations of the Earth's dynamics. Can they be predicted? This is often the first question students ask. To answer that right away: no, at present it is not possible to anticipate the date,…
It is given an attempt for statistical estimation of when earthquake prediction for Balkan- Black Sea region using the geomagnetic field signal. The preliminary test of the approach for England (Hartland), Turkey (Kandilli) and India…
This paper aims to improve existing results about using averaging method for analysis of dynamic systems on time scales. We obtain a more accurate estimate for proximity between solutions of original and averaged systems regarding…
The influence of the geomagnetic field on the development of air showers is studied. The well known International Geomagnetic Reference Field was included in the AIRES air shower simulation program as an auxiliary tool to allow calculating…